Livestock Monitor – 12/19/2025
SHEEP & LAMB PRICES MOVE SEASONALLY HIGHER
During the second half of the year, the lamb market has strengthened. Feeder lamb prices (3 market average, CO, TX, SD, 60-90 pounds) started to move seasonally higher in August. In late August, feeder lamb reached a seasonal bottom at $197.79 per cwt, and since that time, prices moved quickly higher, rising $140.68 (+71%) to last week’s price of $338.47 per cwt. Compared to a year ago, last week’s feeder lamb price was up $148.66 (+78%). Slaughter lamb prices (national negotiated live) have been on a steady rise since the last week of May when prices bottomed out at $161.42 per cwt. By late July, slaughter lamb prices continued to move counter-seasonally higher, cresting at $200 per cwt, and by October, prices were above $220 per cwt. From October to last week, prices ranged from about $221 to nearly $229 per cwt with an average of almost $225 per cwt. The last time slaughter lamb prices reached about $220 per cwt was late April 2022 ($222.30 per cwt).
Support for feeder and slaughter lamb prices has been partly driven by a rise in the lamb cutout value. Last week’s lamb cutout value was $517 per cwt, down slightly from last week’s $522 per cwt, but up $52 per cwt (+11%) compared to a year ago. Since August, the lamb cutout value has been rising, which is significant because for nearly two years (August 2023 to August 2025), the lamb cutout value ranged from about $441 to $480 per cwt with an average of $465 per cwt. In less than four months, the cutout value has risen from $465 to the recent high of $522, an increase of $42 per cwt (+9%). The last time the lamb cutout value was about $520 per cwt was August 2022 ($525).
Year-to-date through mid-December, weekly lamb and mutton production has totaled just over 116 million pounds, up 1.1 million pounds (+1%) from the same period last year. The rise in production is due to higher sheep and lamb slaughter, up nearly 48,000 head (+2.6%) through mid-December to just over 1.9 million head. Through the same period, average dressed weights are down about one pound (-2%) from last year to about 61 pounds. The decline in dressed weights started to trend lower in the second half of 2025. From July through mid-December, dressed weights averaged 57.4 pounds compared to 61.3 pounds last year, a decline of nearly 4 pounds (-6%).
ON-FEED INVENTORIES ARE ON THEIR 13TH CONSECTIVE MONTH OF DECLINE
USDA-NASS released their Cattle on Feed report last week, showing on-feed inventories were down -2.1% year over year to 11.7 million head as of December 1. The loss of on-feed inventories fell on the heels of lowered placements and marketings during the month of November. Placements were down -11.2% to just under 1.6 million head while marketings were down -11.8% to 1.5 million head. Compared to pre-report estimates, realized outcomes all fell within forecasted ranges but compared to average assumptions were lower across the board.
Placements of cattle continue to weaken as supplies of available feeder cattle also shrink. November placements were the lowest observed since 2015 levels when totals were just a hair above 1.6 million head. By weight category, cattle placed weighing less than 600 pounds were down -12.1% to 435,000 head, 600–699-pound placements were down -10.7% to 375,000 head, 700–799-pound placements were down -14.7% to 320,000 head, 800–899-pound cattle were down -7.6% to 255,000 head, 900–999-pound cattle were down -10.3% to 130,000 head, and placements weighing 1,000 pounds or more were down -5.9% to 80,000 head.
RECORD-SETTING CORN EXPORTS SUPPORT IMPROVING CORN PRICE OUTLOOK
The monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the USDA released earlier in December pegged corn exports at 3.2 billion bushels, a new record, based on shipments since the start of the crop year on September 1. This projection was up 125 million bushels from a month earlier and up 325 million bushels from expectations that were in place before harvest started in September. On the other side of the supply and demand ledger for the US corn market, corn production in September was expected to be 16.814 billion bushels based on 90 million acres harvested with an average yield of 186 bushels per acre. The current USDA estimate of corn production is down about 50 million bushels from September based on a downward adjustment to average yields.
The net shift of 50 million fewer bushels produced, and 325 million more bushels exported provides the impetus for raising price expectations. In August, the average corn price received by farmers was $3.96, according to the USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS). The outlook for the average corn price at the farm for the 2025-2026 crop year (beginning September 1) was $3.60 per bushel. Over the course of the last three months, WASDE has revised up the export forecast to the aforementioned amount. The effect of these changes should support an average corn price at the farm to average $4.00 per bushel, up $0.40 from the September outlook. The latest USDA-NASS estimate of corn prices at farm is for October with an average of $3.93.
At the end of October, the nearby futures contract for corn was $4.32, and in recent days, that contract expired at the same price, $4.32. Corn prices in Omaha started October at $3.93 but in mid-December have averaged $4.30, suggesting that USDA-NASS farm corn prices for November and December will move up from the October average.
The next important date for the corn market could be mid-January when USDA-NASS releases their final estimate of 2025 corn production. Last January, USDA-NASS revised their corn production estimate of the 2024 corn crop from 15.143 billion bushels to 14.867 billion bushels based on a reduced yield. There has been some conjecture that a similar adjustment will be made again this year. If so, there would be price ramifications, but the cash market may have already anticipated this change.
Livestock Monitor (pdf)