Livestock Monitor – 8/14/2026

GROCERY STORE MEAT PRICES UP +5.4% IN JULY

The Consumer Price Index for July from the Department of Labor came out this week showing a +3.4% increase from a year earlier, an increase that was down slightly from the +3.5% increase in June. Grocery store food prices were up +3.0% with meat department prices up +5.4%. Food purchased for away-from-home consumption was up +3.4%.

Grocery store beef prices spearheaded July grocery store price trends. Overall beef prices were up +9.4% from July 2025. Fresh ground beef prices were up +9.0%, and steak prices were up +9.6%.  Beef roasts, which are normally out of their peak demand season, had posted prices that were up +13.5% from the prior July.

Fresh chicken prices in the grocery store were less expensive than a year ago by -2.5%. Pork prices were close to unchanged relative to a year ago, up +0.5%. Pork chops were up +0.7% while bacon prices were close to -3% lower. Hot dog prices were up +6.0%.

Seafood prices were significantly higher than a year ago. Fresh fish and seafood prices were up close to +8%. Frozen fish and seafood were up by a similar amount. Dairy prices were close to unchanged from a year ago although prices diverged between fluid milk and dairy products. Whole milk prices were up +6.0% while cheese prices were down -4.2%. Butter prices were down -8% from a year ago. Eggs were leading the deflationary price trends in grocery stores with prices down -26% from a year ago. Other notable price changes in grocery stores were coffee and candy prices that were up +10% while fruit and vegetable prices were up +5%. Outside the grocery store, gasoline prices were +25% higher than a year ago.

Prospects for grocery store meat prices could support a topping out of beef prices in the second half of the year. At the wholesale level, lean beef trim prices have held steady instead of rising since the second half of the spring. Last year, prices for lean beef trim were moving significantly higher during these months. Fifty percent lean beef trimmings prices have been decisively lower in the last three months, a sharp contrast to a year ago. Strip loin and round prices at the wholesale level have also been in a downtrend in recent months. For poultry, wholesale breast meat prices have been lower than a year ago with little reason to support a rebound going into a seasonally declining consumer demand period. Pork loin and belly prices have been below year-ago values by -30% to -40% at times during the spring quarter and are still less expensive than a year ago.

MID-YEAR TRADE UPDATE

Trade data was released for the month of June, which provides insights into trade flows through the first half of the year. Beef imports were up 354 million pounds (+12%) through the first six months of the year to 3.3 billion pounds. Brazil was the top supplier at 717 million pounds through June, but compared to a year ago, shipments were down 25 million pounds (-3%). The decline from Brazil was more than offset by higher year-to-date shipments from Australia (+17%), Canada (+3%), and New Zealand (+7%) to 700, 489, and 371 million pounds, respectively. Of note were higher imports from Argentina, which rose 71 million pounds (+111%) from a year ago to 136 million pounds and a 91 million pound (+30%) increase in imports from Mexico to 398 million pounds. Through the first half of the year, beef exports fell 221 million pounds (-16%) to 1.2 billion pounds. Lower shipments were seen to South Korea (-12%), Japan (-18%), Canada (-12%), and Mexico (-17%) to 303, 270, 103, and 130 million pounds, respectively.

Pork imports were up 29 million pounds (+5%) through the first six months of the year to 584 million pounds. The increase is due largely to a 33 million pound (+10%) increase in shipments from Canada, which totaled 369 million pounds and accounted for 63% of total pork imports through June. Pork exports totaled 3.6 billion pounds through the first half of the year, which was an increase of 118 million pounds (+3%). Mexico remains the top destination for U.S. pork exports, accounting for 38% of total exports through six months of the year. First half pork exports to Mexico totaled 1.4 billion pounds, up 31 million pounds (+2%) from last year. Higher year-to-date pork exports were sent to Japan, up 85 million pounds (+17%) to 587 million pounds. Lower year-to-date pork exports were sent to South Korea, down 22 million pounds (-6%) to 348 million pounds.

Lamb imports totaled 159 million pounds through the first half of the year, up more than 11 million pounds (+8%) from last year. The rise was due to larger shipments from Australia, which rose 8.6 million pounds (+8%) to 117 million pounds. Shipments from New Zealand increased 2.7 million pounds (+7%) to 41 million pounds. Mutton imports more than doubled through the first six months of the year, increasing 14.2 million pounds (+103%) to 28 million pounds. The increase was due to an 11 million pound (+109%) increase from Australia and a 3 million pound (+76%) increase from New Zealand to 21.3 and 6.3 million pounds, respectively.

Broiler exports totaled 3.2 billion pounds through June, up 27 million pounds (+1%) from last year. Turkey exports rose 22 million pounds (+12%) to 211 million pounds through the first six months of the year. Larger turkey exports were seen to Mexico, which rose 15 million pounds (+10%) to 172 million pounds through June. Mexico accounted for 82% of total turkey exports through the first half of the year.

INITIAL ESTIMATES OF CORN PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY BELOW EXPECATIONS

            The USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) released their first estimates of crops to be harvested this fall based on “boots in the field” work at the beginning of August. Corn production was pegged at 16 billion bushels, down from 17 billion bushels last year. Average crop yield per acre was 180.7 bushels, which was down 6 bushels from last year. Some expectations for yield were in the 183-185 range. The smaller harvest supports an outlook for corn prices at the farm in the coming crop year in the $4.50-$5.00 range if USDA’s assumptions of buoyant exports and industrial usage are accurate. As the 2025-2026 crop year comes to a close, corn prices at the farm look to average around $4.15.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)