Livestock Monitor – 11/24/2025
USDA-NASS BACKFILLS OCTOBER CATTLE ON FEED REPORT
On Friday, the USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) released its Cattle on Feed report after not having released the October report due to the government shutdown. This report included both the October and November estimates. As of October 1, there were 11.4 million head on feed, a -1.6% decline from the same time last year. Contributing to this decline during September were -6.3% and -3.9% decreases in placements and marketings to 2.02 and 1.63 million head, respectively. All reported changes fell within pre-report estimate ranges.
Fast forward to the more recent information: cattle on feed as of November 1 were reported at 11.7 million head, a -2.2% decrease from last year. Relative to pre-report expectations, analysts were anticipating an average decline of -2.3%, within a range of down -1.4% to -3.1%. What brought the decline in November was a combination of lower placements and marketings during October. Placements of cattle into feedyards fell -10% to 2.04 million head, while marketings of fed cattle fell -8% to 1.7 million head. Analysts going into the report had anticipated average declines of -9.4% and -7.7% for placements and marketings, respectively; both realized values came out at the bottom of the forecasted ranges of -10.5% for placements and -8% for marketings.
While there are many valuable pieces of information in the report, one of the more important items is the quarterly number of heifers on feed, which was originally intended to be released in October. USDA-NASS included that information this month, reporting that 38.1% of on-feed inventories are currently heifers; this is unchanged from last quarter and down -1.5% from the same quarter a year earlier, effectively holding the ratio of roughly 1.65 steers per heifer constant so far for the 2025 calendar year.
USDA RELEASES AUGUST TRADE DATA
The USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released August trade data after the longest government shutdown on record. USDA-FAS data is reported on a product weight basis. Year-to-date beef exports through August totaled 775,188 metric tons (MT), a decrease of 81,620 MT (-10%) from the same period in 2024. From January to August, beef imports surged 238,137 MT (+24%) to a total of more than 1.2 million MT.
Through the first eight months of the year, pork exports totaled nearly 1.9 million MT, down 62,308 MT (-3%) from the prior year. Pork imports totaled 310,113 MT from January through August, down 24,507 MT (-7%) from the same period last year.
Chicken exports totaled just under 1.9 million (MT) through the first eight months of the year, down 39,364 MT (-3%). Year-to-date through August, turkey exports fell 23,239 MT (-20%) to 92,973 MT. According to the USDA-FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) site, September trade data is scheduled for release on December 1st.
DAIRY HERD BEGINS TO ADJUST FOR LOWER MILK PRICES
The monthly dairy herd declined for the first time this year in October but was still up more than 200,000 head from a year earlier. There were 6,000 fewer cows being milked in October than in September as the industry responds to Class 4 milk prices that started out the year at close to $21 per cwt followed by steady declines to under $15 in October. Declines for Class 3 milk have been steady but more modest. Milk production in October was up +3.7% from a year ago as milk cow productivity was up +1.5%, supplementing the +2% increase in the number of milk cows in the US. Texas accounted for 5,000 head of the decline in the dairy cow herd and New Mexico another 2,000 head. A few states in the Midwest and Southeast registered dairy herd gains of a thousand head from September to October.
USDA- NASS also released its Dairy Products report for August production, the first issue of this report since the government shutdown. Butter production was up +8% from the prior August. This followed a +9% increase in July from a year earlier and a +12% increase in June. Underlying this increase are new processing plants coming on stream in the Pacific Northwest, California, and the Midwest. The dairy cow herd in Idaho has gone from 685,000 last December to 725,000 in September to support one of these new butter plants. Oregon has also expanded its dairy herd significantly.
Total cheese production in August was up less than a percent from a year ago. Production of American-type cheeses was about unchanged while Italian-type cheese production was up +2%. Construction of large cheese plants has also been notable this year, driving expansion of dairy herds in Texas, Kansas, and South Dakota during the spring and summer months. Cheese production in the spring quarter was up +4%. Cheese production data for September is not available yet, but summer quarter production is expected to be up +4%, similar to the spring quarter.
Cheddar cheese prices have gyrated between $1.70 and $1.85 per pound since mid-year, down -20% to -30% below a year ago. Cheese production is projected to accelerate to a +6 to +8% expansion this quarter given the increase in milk supplies and depressed prices for Class 4 milk and butter. The additional cheese production is expected to pressure cheddar cheese prices into a lower range of $1.50 to $1.70. Reducing milk supplies by way of increased dairy cow culling this quarter may help to moderate price weakness in the cheese market.
Livestock Monitor (pdf)