Livestock Monitor – 11/6/2026

BEEF IMPORTS HIGHER, EXPORTS LOWER

Beef imports continue to track higher through the first three quarters of the year. From January to September, total beef imports are up 734 million pounds (+18%) to just over 4.9 billion pounds. Australia and Brazil continue to be the top suppliers of beef to the U.S. Through the first three quarters of the year, beef imports from Australia totaled more than 1.1 billion pounds, up 166 million pounds (+17%). Year-to-date through September, beef imports from Brazil have risen 144 million pounds (+17%) to 1.0 billion pounds. Imports from Canada totaled 753 million pounds though September, up 12 million pounds (+2%). Mexico has shipped more beef to the U.S. through the first nine months of the year, rising 110 million pounds (+22%) to 603 million pounds. Imports from New Zealand are up 41 million pounds (+9%) to 514 million pounds. Through September, these five countries accounted for 81% of total U.S. beef imports.

Beef exports continue to track below year-ago levels, driven largely by lower exportable supplies. Year-to-date through September, U.S. beef exports totaled nearly 1.8 billion pounds, down 227 million pounds (-11%) from last year. South Korea has been the top destination for U.S. beef exports through September at 444 million pounds, which is down 37 million pounds (-8%). Exports to Japan have fallen 80 million pounds (-17%) to 399 million pounds. Lower beef exports to Mexico were reported through September, down 32 million pounds (-14%) to 197 million pounds. Exports to Canada fell 29 million pounds (-17%) through September to 149 million pounds. Shipments to Taiwan increased 12 million pounds (+10%) to 139 million pounds. These top five export destinations account for about three quarters (76%) of total beef exports from January through September.

FEEDER CATTLE RECEIPTS

Feeder cattle receipts provide valuable insights into how the fall marketing season is developing. The USDA-Agricultural Marketing Service indicates that auction and direct receipts averaged approximately 255,587 head per week during October’s reporting period. This was a 62.3% increase from September. Furthermore, October’s average weekly auction and direct receipts increased 7.6% from October 2025, reflecting stronger movement during the fall marketing season. This followed a September weekly average that was down -17.1% compared to the same month last year. The three-week average ending October 30th was up 4.3% compared to the same period last year. This increased movement is consistent with the fall marketings of spring-calves with October’s share of calves weighing 600lbs or less representing 57.4% of auction receipts, a +28.8% increase relative to September.

October heifer auction and direct receipts averaged approximately 98,737 head per week, compared to an average of 63,130 head per week in September. The latest three-week heifer average reached 102,618 head, a +2.8% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Looking at historical comparisons of the heifer share of auction and direct receipts, heifers represented an average of 40.2% in October. This is down from October 2025 with an average of 41.6%. The declining share is consistent with signs of herd retention. However, relative to the previous herd expansion, the current October a1/6verage far outpaces the average of 36.5% a decade ago. The difference in averages could /be explained by sustained drought impacts of the West, strong feeder cattle prices, and other mitigating economic factors.

Despite recent increases in feeder cattle receipts, year-to-date auction and direct receipts are -6.5% lower through October 30th compared to 2025. Stronger October receipts are consistent with seasonal marketings of spring-calves and may help narrow the year-over-year placement deficit. However, tightened supplies continue to constrain the market and will be worth watching.

AFRICAN SWINE FEVER AND U.S. PORK EXPORTS

According to the USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) October 2026 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report, two developments have shaped global pork trade this year: Spain’s African Swine Flu (ASF) detection in November 2025 and larger-than-expected hog slaughter in China as producers reduced their herds. Spain confirmed ASF in a wild boar nearly a year ago; prior to this detection, Spain had not detected ASF within its borders since 1994. Japan, Malaysia, and Taiwan quickly halted Spanish pork imports, and those restrictions remain in place. Even so, FAS notes that Spain’s pork production kept climbing through June 2026, with more product moving to other EU member states. Spain also increased shipments to South Korea, Vietnam, and the U.S.

In theory, markets closed to Spanish pork should open the door for U.S. exporters, but the results have been uneven. FAS notes that other EU suppliers, such as Denmark and France, partially backfilled Spain in restricted markets. U.S. pork exports to Japan, which remains closed to Spain, is gaining ground with year-to-date exports through September up 93 million pounds (+13%) to 821 million pounds. South Korea tells the opposite story as it accepts pork from unaffected Spanish regions, and Spain shifted more product there, so U.S. exports fell 40 million pounds (-8%) over the same period to 423 million pounds. USDA-FAS is forecasting a +1% increase in U.S. pork exports in 2027.

From January through September, U.S. pork exports are up 35 million pounds (+1%) to nearly 5.2 billion pounds. Japan and South Korea are key U.S. export destinations accounting for 16% and 9%, respectively, of total pork exports through the first nine months of the year. Mexico remains the top export destination for U.S. pork exports, accounting for approximately 38% of total exports through the first three quarters of the year. With mounting competition in the global pork trade, the risk that U.S. pork producers face is expanding pork production beyond what domestic and international demand can absorb. Hog prices are already slipping: the October WASDE report is forecasting barrows and gilts at an annual average of $63.79 per cwt for 2026, down $5.01 per cwt (-7%) from the 2025 annual average of $68.80 per cwt.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)