Livestock Monitor – 5/8/2026

FIRST QUARTER TRADE UPDATE

March trade statistics were released by the USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS) last week, which finalized first quarter trade figures. Beef imports continue to rise with the first quarter of 2026 reported at just over 1.7 billion pounds, up 227 million pounds (+15%) from the previous year. Compared to a year ago, higher beef imports were seen during the first quarter from Brazil (+12%), Australia (+12%), Mexico (+23%), and Uruguay (+27%) to 394, 248, 197, and 129 million pounds, respectively. First quarter beef imports from Argentina increased 29 million pounds (+90%) from last year to 62 million pounds. Beef imports fell in the first quarter from Canada (-3%) and New Zealand (-2%) to 248 and 170 million pounds, respectively. Lower beef exports were reported during the first quarter of 2026, falling 127 million pounds (-18%) to 586 million pounds. Declines were reported during the first quarter of 2026 for South Korea (-7%), Japan (-17%), Mexico (-8%), and Canada (-9%) to 147, 132, 72, and 54 million pounds, respectively.

First quarter pork exports increased 59 million pounds (+3%) from the prior year to more than 1.8 billion pounds. Mexico was the top destination with pork exports totaling 708 million pounds during the first quarter, up 33 million pounds (+5%) from last year. Mexico accounted for 38% of total U.S. pork exports during the first quarter. Year-over-year increases in pork exports were seen to Japan (+20%), South Korea (+1%), and Canada (+2%) to 280, 184, and 128 million pounds, respectively. Pork imports fell marginally by less than one percent (-0.7%) to 278 million pounds during the first quarter of 2026.

Lamb imports rose during the first quarter of 2026 by 1.5 million pounds (+2%) to 74 million pounds. Increased imports from New Zealand (+11%) more than offset a marginal decline from Australia
(-0.4%), leading to the first quarter rise in lamb imports. Mutton imports jumped 6 million pounds (+62%) during the first quarter to 16 million pounds, driven by higher mutton imports from Australia (+72%) and New Zealand (+29%). Broiler imports increased slightly during the first quarter of 2026 by 11 million pounds (+0.7%) to 1.6 billion pounds. Turkey exports were 114 million pounds during the first quarter of 2026, up 18 million pounds (+19%) from last year. The rise in turkey exports was driven by a 19 million pound (+25%) increase in shipments to Mexico, which accounted for 84% of total U.S. turkey exports during the first quarter.

FIRST QUARTER DEMAND INDEX: BEEF UP AND PORK LOWER

First quarter demand indexes calculated by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) showed year-over-year growth in beef demand while pork demand fell slightly. The retail all fresh beef demand index was calculated at 147 for the first quarter of 2026, which was up from 137 (+7%) last year and the highest of the series going back to the year 2000. Since 2000, a rise of about 10 points in the beef demand index has occurred five other times, 03/04, 14/15, 19/20, 21/22, 24/25. As the beef demand index reached a high for the series, the first quarter all fresh retail beef prices were a record at $9.55 per pound, up $1.25 per pound (+15%) from the first quarter of 2025. The strong beef demand that occurred in 2025 continued into the first quarter of 2026.

Since 2000, the highest first quarter pork demand index was reported at 123 in 2022; from that peak, the value has fallen 30 points to 93 for the first quarter of 2026. Compared to the prior year, the pork demand index value fell 1 point (-1%), which was the lowest value since 2017. The average first quarter retail pork price was reported at $4.91 per pound, which was down fractionally by less than 1% ($0.01 per pound) from the prior year. Beef demand strengthened during the first quarter of 2026 while pork demand softened, but elevated fuel prices during the second quarter could threaten beef and pork demand over the summer grilling season.

RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST STARTING OUT POORLY

The first week in May commences the reporting of range and pasture conditions in the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress reporting system. The initial measurements this year show more pastures either in very good to excellent condition or poor to very poor condition. Last year, 10% of the beef cow herd was in states with 40% of pastures rated poor or very poor. This year, almost half of the beef cow herd is in states that have 40% of pastures rated poor or very poor. At the opposite extreme, 30% percent of the beef cow herd is in states that have 40% of pastures rated good to excellent, which compares to only 3% of the herd a year ago.

Concerning the two largest beef cattle states, Texas and Oklahoma, Texas pastures rated very poor in the first week of May, standing at 15% versus 7% a year ago while pastures rated poor accounted for 27% of pastures compared to 18% a year ago. In Oklahoma, 13% of pastures were rated very poor in the first week of May this year versus 6% the same week in 2025. During the first week of May in Oklahoma, 20% of pastures were rated poor this year compared to 11% a year ago.

  On a regional level, the Southeast (Arkansas and Louisiana eastward) is suffering significant drought conditions on pastures. In this region, 36% of pastures are rated poor or very poor at the beginning of May compared to 12% a year ago. Pastures rated in good to excellent condition were 27%, down from 57% a year ago. The western region (west of the Rocky Mountains) surprisingly is unchanged from a year ago.  Ranges and pastures in the West that are rated poor to very poor in May account for 26% of all pastures compared to 33% a year ago. Western region range and pastures rated good to excellent in early May this year stood at 45% compared to 47% a year ago. Pastures in the Cornbelt and the Northeastern U.S. are in about the same condition as they were a year ago. Pastures in the Northeast are better than they were in 2024, and Cornbelt pastures are rated better than they were three to four years ago.

 The big question mark is pasture conditions in the Great Plains (Colorado and Kansas northward). Pastures rated very poor at the start of May represented 21% of all pastures, up from 13% a year ago.  This is the highest percentage of pastures rated very poor in early May in this region since 2022. Poor pastures in this region in 2021 and 2022 took a big toll on beef cow numbers in this region.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)