Livestock Monitor – 3/27/2026
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MARCH HOG INVENTORY
The March Hogs and Pigs report noted a marginal increase (+0.4%) of 323 thousand head for all hogs and pigs to just over 74.3 million head. This was within the range of pre-report estimates from +0.1% to +1.5%, but slightly above the average estimate of +0.9%. Market hogs were up slightly (+0.6%) or about 412 thousand head to more than 68.4 million head, which was within the range of pre-reported estimates (+0.1% to +1.7%) but slightly below the average estimate (+1%).
The breeding herd was reported at nearly 5.9 million head, down almost 89 thousand head (-1.5%) from last year, which was below the range of pre-report estimates. Pre-report estimates were mixed with a range of down -0.6% to up +0.3% with an average of down -0.2%. Farrowings for the December to February period were reported down by about 42 thousand head (-1.5%) to just under 2.8 million head. Analysts pre-report estimates were expecting farrowings to move in the opposite direction by +0.7% to +2.0% with an average of up +1.6%. The lower farrowings were more than offset by higher pigs per litter, which increased +2.1% to 11.90 compared to the +0.5% average pre-report estimate. The larger than expected pigs per litter signals that disease pressure may not have been as much of a factor during the winter months. The higher pigs per litter led to a 188 thousand head increase (+0.6%) in the pig crop to nearly 33.2 million head.
Farrowing intentions for the March to May and the June to August periods were reported to be around 2.9 million head. Compared to a year ago, that would be a slight increase of about four thousand head (+0.1%) for March to May but a decrease of about 61 thousand head (-2.1%) for June to August. Pre-report estimates were expecting marginal increases in farrowings for both periods. Farrowing intentions holding steady for the next two periods signals a measured approach to production through the remainder of the year.
COLD STORAGE STOCKS LOWER IN FEBRUARY
Cold storage stocks for the month of February posted declines from a year ago for both red meat and poultry, signaling a tightening in meat protein supplies. Total red meat stocks in February were reported down 45.1 million pounds (-5%) from last year to 834.5 million pounds. Total beef in cold storage was reported at 413.3 million pounds in February, down 22.6 million pounds (-5%). The decline was due mainly to a 23.4 million pound (-6%) decrease in boneless beef stocks to 374.7 million pounds in February. Beef cuts were up 862 thousand pounds (+2%) in February to 38.6 million pounds. Lamb and mutton stocks were reported at 16.9 million pounds in February, down 2.6 million pounds (-13%) from last year.
Total pork in cold storage for the month of February was down nearly 20 million pounds (-5%) to 403.5 million pounds. The decline was driven by lower stocks for bellies (-5%), loins (-8%), ribs (-2%), butts (-15%), and trimmings (-8%), compared to a year ago, to 44.9, 31.4, 86.2, 18.2, and 43.5 million pounds, respectively. Cold storage stocks held mostly steady in February for hams and picnics at 83.9 and 6.9 million pounds, respectively. The tight pork stocks indicate that domestic demand and international demand remain strong.
Total chicken in cold storage was reported at 757.7 million in February, down 22.4 million pounds
(-3%) from last year. Declines from a year ago were seen in breast meat (-8%), drumsticks (-15%), leg quarters (-19%), and wings (-2%) to 234.4, 24.5, 48.8, and 52.9 million pounds, respectively. In February, total turkey stocks fell 37.7 million pounds (-13%) to 254.7 million pounds. The declines were driven primarily by lower stocks for breast meat (-14%) and whole birds (-25%), which were reported at 108.1 and 67.4 million pounds, respectively, in February. Egg stocks were 24.6 million pounds in February, a jump of 10.2 million pounds (+71%) from the prior year.
DAIRY HERD COUNT TOPS 9.6 MILLION HEAD, HIGHEST SINCE 1993
The February dairy herd tally was 9.615 million head, up 15,000 from January and 211,000 more than 12 months earlier. This is the largest US dairy herd since January-March 1993 when the dairy herd stood at 9.632 million head. At that time, the dairy industry was in liquidation mode, and the herd would continue to shrink until 1999, when dairy cow numbers would stabilize at 9.1 million head. In 1993, Wisconsin had the most dairy cows (about 1.6 million) versus slightly less than 1.3 million now. California had the second-most dairy cows with 1.2 million dairy cows. California has 1.7 million dairy cows now.
Milk production in January was up +3.4% and was up +2.9% in February from a year ago. Most of this increase is attributable to more cows in the dairy herd, but milk cow productivity has also been up +1% from 2025 in the first two months of the year.
The increase in the dairy herd in February was surprising. Milk prices collapsed in the last quarter of 2025 as butter prices fell. Milk production profitability was under pressure for much of 2025, but the situation did not get extremely painful economically until November in most areas of the country. A record large corn crop that pressured feed costs was a helpful offset for low milk prices. Profit metrics fell to the lowest values in two years in January. Weekly dairy cow slaughter in February was up by +9% from the prior February following a +6% increase in January relative to a year ago. Dairy cow slaughter in the first two weeks of March was up +6% from a year earlier. The increase in dairy cow slaughter does not seem consistent with more cows being added to the herd.
Meanwhile, butter and non-fat dry milk prices have popped up in February and March by enough to provide considerable relief to milk producers. Wholesale butter prices have gone from under $1.40 per pound in January to over $1.90 in March. Non-fat dry milk prices traded around $1.15 at the start of the year and are now close to $1.60, the highest price since the summer of 2022. These price jumps support Class 4 milk prices possibly surpassing year-ago values in the coming month, which could rationalize maintaining a larger dairy cow herd.
