Livestock Monitor – 10/10/2025

LAMB PRICES RISE

The lamb cutout value has been on a steady rise since early July with the value rising from $460 per cwt the first week of July to the most recently available value of $503 per cwt the first week of October. From the first week of July, the lamb cutout value has increased +9% ($43 per cwt). The last time the cutout value reached above $500 per cwt was early September 2022 when it was $503 per cwt. Prior to the rise in the lamb cutout value, from January through June, the lamb cutout value averaged $459 per cwt with a range of $452 to $466 per cwt.

Rise in the cutout value has been driven by growing prices for the rack and shoulder. Since early July, the rack (medium) has gone from $1,024 per cwt to $1,162 per cwt in the first week of October, an increase of +13% ($137 per cwt) over the period. The shoulder has risen +15% ($60 per cwt) since a price of $402 per cwt in the first week of July to $462 per cwt by the first week of October, which was the highest price so far for the year. The loin was reported at $738 per cwt the first of October, the highest price so far for the year and up +7% ($48 per cwt) since the first week of July. The leg has seen a +6% ($30 per cwt) increase since the first week of July, with the most recent price at $521 per cwt.

As the cutout value has risen, there has also been an increase in slaughter lamb prices. In early June, the slaughter lamb price dipped to $161.42 per cwt, the lowest so far for the year. Since that point, the slaughter lamb price has increased +40% ($64.90 per cwt) to the most recent price of $226.32 per cwt the first week of October. The last time slaughter lamb prices were this high was mid-February 2022 when they were in the upper-$220 to mid-$230 per cwt area. Prices for 60–90-pound lambs are also showing strength with weekly prices averaging double-digit gains since late July. Last week’s price for 60-90-pound lambs was $221.67 per cwt, up +34% ($56.39 per cwt) from last year. The strong lamb prices are welcomed and likely signals strength for lamb demand.

RANGE AND PASTURE

Across much of the U.S., as we move further into autumn, cattle producers are increasingly deciding whether to retain or market reproductively sound females. A key factor in that decision is the condition of grasslands. The most recent USDA-NASS report (September 28) shows range and pastureland rated poor and very poor at 21% and 30.6% in the Southern Plains and Great Plains, respectively.

In the Southern Plains, current conditions are among the best observed in the past decade, with the share of poor and very poor acres down -19.5% from the same week last year. The Great Plains have not fared quite as well, though major improvements since early summer have brought conditions back close to the 10-year average, with poor and very poor ratings down -11.4% year over year.

These improvements have supported lower feeding costs this season. With grass more abundant, producers have also benefited from lower hay prices, which averaged $158 per ton in August, down -4.8% from a year earlier and -36% below the peak set in August 2022. According to USDA and the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), as of October 7, only 25% of cattle were located in drought-affected areas, a sharp improvement from 43% last year and 70% in 2022.

Looking ahead, the National Weather Service projects a warmer and drier-than-normal outlook for October through December. Still, Grass-Cast forecasts developed by Colorado State University, USDA, NDMC, and the University of Arizona indicate that aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of grasslands through 2025 should remain positive relative to the 36-year average. The Southern Plains, along with parts of northwest South Dakota, southwest North Dakota, and southeast Montana, are expected to see growth exceeding +15%. Most other areas of the Great Plains are forecast to remain near the long-term average, though some northern regions could experience declines of -5% to -15%.

BIRD FLU AND EGG PRICES

Through September and into October, the number of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) cases have been rising. As has been the situation with prior HPAI cases, a rise in cases typically occurs around migratory season. Often, commercial table egg and commercial turkey operations take the brunt of the cases. In September and the first two weeks of October, USDA APHIS has reported 26 cases in commercial turkey operations across Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Utah, North Dakota, and South Dakota, affecting more than one million birds. Fewer cases have been reported in commercial table egg operations, but the number of birds affected has been large. Through September and part of October, three cases have been reported in commercial table egg operations with two in Wisconsin and one in Washington totaling more than 5.5 million birds affected. The significant impact to commercial table egg operations raises concern for potential impacts to egg prices.

In September, the national average monthly wholesale price for Grade A large eggs was $2.31 per dozen, while delivered store door prices of the same grade and size in New York averaged $2.85 per dozen; marking year-over-year declines of -33.3% and -2.7%, respectively. These declines follow record-high levels reached earlier this year, when national wholesale prices surged to $8.51 per dozen in March 2025. The sharp pullback from spring reflects improved supply conditions, though the market remains sensitive to new HPAI outbreaks. A resurgence in HPAI cases could again drive prices sharply higher. The last major outbreak saw wholesale prices climb +300% in just five months from early October 2024 to March of this year.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)