Livestock Monitor – 9/12/2025
RETAIL MEAT PRICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB
On the beef side, August strength was driven by broad gains across major cuts. Increases were particularly notable for sirloin steaks (+24.1% to $14.32 per lb.) and boneless stew beef (+20.8% to $8.82 per lb.), while other major cuts posted year-over-year increases of +10.3% to +15%. All uncooked ground beef rose +13% to $6.63 per pound.
In pork, gains were not universal. Bacon and boneless chops led the composite rate higher, with sliced bacon increasing +6.2% to $7.21 per pound, and boneless chops rising +1.4% to $4.69 per pound. By contrast, all pork chops and boneless hams declined year-over-year by -2.4% and -3.6% to $4.29 and $5.43 per pound, respectively.
Poultry prices were mixed. Fresh whole chicken and boneless breasts increased +4.4% and +6.6% to $2.08 and $4.21 per pound, while bone-in legs fell -2.1% to $1.79 per pound.
Dairy prices saw broad increases. Fresh whole milk rose +3.1% to $4.17 per gallon and processed American cheese and natural cheddar increased +3.4% and +6.2% to $5.01 and $6.12 per pound, respectively.
TRADE UPDATE
Beef imports continue to rise with shipments from January through July totaling more than 3.4 billion pounds, up +30% (790 million pounds) from the same period last year. Brazil has emerged as the leading supplier this year with shipments totaling over 810 million pounds through the first seven months of the year, an increase of +91% (387 million pounds). Imports from Australia have risen +35% (186 million pounds) year-to-date through July to 719 million pounds. Through seven months of the year beef exports are down -9% (164 million pounds) to 1.6 million pounds. Year-to-date, beef exports are down to Japan (-3%), Mexico (-10%), China (-47%), and Canada (-11%), which more than offset a +9% increase in beef exports to South Korea. Available domestic supplies are expected to remain tight, which will likely continue the trend of higher beef imports. If so, this could contribute to lower available exportable beef supplies in the near term.
Year-to-date through July pork imports are down -4% (30 million pounds) to 652 million pounds. The lower pork imports are driven by a -6% (24 million pound) decline in shipments from Canada to 393 million pounds. Through the first seven months of the year, Canada has accounted for 60% of total pork imports. From January to July, pork exports were down -2% (102 million pounds) to just over 4.0 billion pounds. Mexico remains the primary destination for U.S. pork exports totaling over 1.5 billion pounds through July, a marginal increase of +0.5% (7 million pounds). The slight increase in exports to Mexico was more than offset by declines to Japan (-10%), South Korea (-8%), Canada (-15%), and China (-7%). Mexico will remain a critical market for U.S. pork exports.
Broiler exports through July were down -3% (104 million pounds) to nearly 3.8 billion pounds. Lower broiler exports were driven by lower year-to-date exports to Mexico (-2%) and the Caribbean (-1%). Turkey exports totaled 230 million pounds from January to July, a decline of -16% (43 million pounds) from last year due to a -10% (21 million pound) decrease in shipments to Mexico.
TURKEY PRICES FOLLOW PATH OF RECORD HIGH PRICES SIMILAR TO 2022
Turkey markets are caught between production that has been slashed by avian influenza and consumers that are looking for meat alternatives to expensive beef, pork and chicken. Wholesale whole bird prices touched $1.60 per pound the last week in August according to USDA Agriculture Marketing Service (AMS), up from $0.83 per pound at the start of the year and the highest price since May 2023. The first-time wholesale whole birds hit this price mark was August 2022, another year when avian influenza was creating havoc with turkey production.
In 2022, turkey production was on a path to be down -6% from the prior year. It’s a similar scenario this year, with production pegged to be down -5%, and that assumes that there will not be any major production problems in the last four months of the year. Turkey markets in 2022 continued to trend higher from August with whole bird prices reaching $1.80 per pound in early October and holding at that value through Thanksgiving. Turkey consumption during the October-December quarter of 2022 was down -4% from the same quarter in 2021 and year-ending inventories of turkey in cold storage increased from the start of the year due to the cut back in late year usage.
The current situation has frozen turkey inventories on August 1 down 52 million pounds (an -11% decline) from a year earlier. On July 1, that comparison was 74 million pounds less than a year earlier, so the market is working to bring usage in line with available supplies. Calculated domestic turkey usage in July was down 22 million pounds from July 2024. Turkey usage this quarter is forecast to be down 52 million pounds from the summer quarter of 2024.
Turkey production for the last quarter of the year is expected to be up +3% from last year. This depends on no major problems with avian influenza and average turkey weights at the processing plant being about +1% heavier than in the same quarter a year ago. If domestic turkey consumption in the October-December quarter come in the same as last year, frozen turkey inventories at the end of the year should be about 235 million pounds. This would be up slightly from inventories at the end of last year of 219 million pounds.
Livestock Monitor (pdf)