Livestock Monitor – 1/23/2026

HEIFERS AS A PERCENT ON FEED INCREASES FROM OCTOBER LEVELS

The final Cattle on Feed report for 2025 was released today by the USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) with January 1 inventory levels. Overall, the report was about as close as one could hope with pre-report estimates. Total cattle on feed came in spot on at down -3.2% to 11.45 million head. Losses during the month came as a result of what has been nine consecutive months of declines in placements. In December, placements on feed fell -5.4% to 1.55 million head, which was higher than the average -6.9% loss expected by analysts. At the other end of the yard, marketings increased in December by +1.8% to 1.77 million head at the inclusion of one additional slaughter day compared to a year ago; the realized value was +0.1% higher from average forecasts.

Also, in the report was the quarterly instillation of the number of heifers on feed, which came in at 4.4 million head (-3.1% year over year); steers on feed were down -3.2% to just over 7 million head. Shocking in these values is the percentage of heifers on feed being up from October (+0.6%) and flat with last January, recording 38.7%. This inventory level has the ratio of steers to heifers at 1.58 steers per heifer on feed which is down from last year’s high of 1.66 observed in April. For context, expansion occurred following the last cycle in 2015, in which this ratio was over 2 steers observed per heifer. Increases in that value followed lows reported during 2011 when that ratio had been bouncing between 1.6 to 1.7 for the couple of years prior. While the influence of beef on dairy in the feedlot mix is unknown, at face value the current report does not paint a large expansionary picture for the Cattle report next week.    

COLD STORAGE STOCKS: RED MEAT DECLINES, CHICKEN RISES

USDA-NASS released the December Cold Storage report, and as of the first of the month, total red meat in cold storage was reported down nearly -3% from last year to 845.3 million pounds. In 2025, red meat stocks trended below a year ago for each month. Total beef in cold storage as of December 1st was down -3.5% to 437.5 million pounds. Stock levels during the fourth quarter trended below year-ago levels, which signaled stronger demand heading into the holiday season, especially for boneless beef cuts.

Pork in cold storage was reported at 390.6 million pounds at the start of December, which was a decline of -1.5% from last year. The decline in pork stocks was driven by lower levels for hams (-1.5%), loins (-8.4%), picnics (-16.6%), and trimmings (-5.5%) to 67.3, 31.9, 5.4, and 45.9 million pounds, respectively. These declines were more than offset by increases in stocks for bellies (+8.1%), ribs (+2.4%), and butts (+3.8%) to 36.9, 83.6, and 22.9 million pounds, respectively. Rounding out red meat in cold storage, lamb and mutton stocks fell -14.2% to nearly 17 million pounds as of the first of December.

Total poultry in cold storage was reported at 998.3 million pounds at the start of December. Chicken stocks were reported up +2.7% to 807.5 million pounds. This increase was driven by larger volumes for breast and thigh meat, which rose +2.1% and +16.7%, respectively, to 245.9 and 18.8 million pounds. These increases more than offset declines seen in stocks for drumsticks (-12.4%), legs (-15.8%), and wings (-2.0%), which were reported at 25.8, 53.6, and 55.1 million pounds, respectively. Turkey stocks fell -26.4% to 165 million pounds in December with declines were seen across the board. Whole birds were down -30.9% to 44.4 million pounds, breast meat fell -27% to 46 million pounds, and legs fell -33.8% to 2.8 million pounds. The decline in turkey stocks is not completely unexpected as bird flu took a toll on supplies and placements were lower in 2025.

CHICKEN INDUSTRY KEEPING PRODUCTION PLANS IN CHECK FOR 2026

            Broiler-type chick hatchery output was up +1% in December, the 10th consecutive month of either no change from a year earlier or a 1% change. Broiler meat production in 2025 was up +2.3% from a year earlier (based on 11 months of hard data from USDA-NASS) with about half of the increase accounted for by heavier average birds at time of processing. The forecast for hatchings in the first quarter of 2026 shows a similar +1% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025.

            The broiler-type hatchery flock on January 1 numbered -2% less than a year earlier, even though it produced +1% more chicks. This amounts to a +3% gain in productivity, which has been the general rule for most of 2025. This higher benchmark for flock productivity will make posting a production gain similar to 2025 in the upcoming year difficult. Placements of young hens (pullets) into the hatchery supply flock during 2025 ran below 2024 monthly numbers for every month from May through December, with the exception of July. The situation in July 2025 was notable as it was a comparison to July of 2024, when a hurricane ripped through major broiler production regions, destroying or reducing operations for several weeks, if not months. The reduced level of pullet placements in the last half of 2025, along with the normal productive life cycle of aging pullets, could imply some limitations on broiler slaughter in the closing months of 2026.

            Chicken industry profitability varied widely during 2025, approaching record-high levels in the second quarter but collapsing as the year came to an end. Fourth quarter margins were comparable to the close-to-breakeven returns of late 2023. Product price trends at the wholesale level are starting to recover in the first quarter of 2026 with breast meat and wing prices hopefully reaching above levels seen in late December 2025. This is still a far cry from a year ago and does not support an increase in broiler production for the year much above 1%. Grocery store chicken prices were headed lower in the last quarter of 2025 and are expected to be lower in 2026 than in 2025.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)