Livestock Monitor – 4/10/2026

GLOBAL MEAT PRODUCTION AND TRADE UPDATE FROM USDA FAS

The USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently released its Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report. Global beef production is projected to be nearly 61.6 million metric tons (MT) in 2026, down 685,000 MT (-1%) from last year and the lowest in three years. Global beef exports are forecast to decline 118,000 MT (-1%) to 13.8 million MT, which is the second highest total on record behind the 13.9 million MT in 2025. The report notes that, “global trade flows are expected to undergo significant reshuffling as China, the world’s largest importer, implements a series of tariff rate quotas (TRQ) that will limit its imports, particularly from Brazil and Australia.”

Global pork production is forecast at a record 120.2 million MT in 2026, up marginally by 670,000 MT (+1%). China accounts for nearly half (49.5%) of global pork production at a forecasted 59.5 million MT in 2026, up marginally by 120,000 MT, or less than 1%, from last year. Global pork exports are forecast to increase less than one percent, or 50,000 MT, to 10.4 million MT in 2026. The U.S. is forecast to be the top global pork exporter in 2026 at nearly 3.3 million MT in 2026, up 104,000 MT (+3%) from last year.

Global chicken production in 2026 is forecast at a record 110.7 million MT, up 2.7 million MT (+3%) from the prior year. The report notes, “while all major producers will make gains, expansion is driven by China and Brazil.” Global chicken exports in 2026 are forecast up 498,000 MT (+3%) from last year to a record of nearly 14.8 million MT. USDA is expecting global chicken exports to be “dominated by China and Brazil.” The report provided further analysis into China’s chicken meat exports, which have nearly tripled over the last five years. The report notes that China’s “rising exports are fueled on solid production growth primarily supported by high grandparent stock inventories, continuing expansion by large integrated producers, increasing processing capacity, and government support and subsidies.”

RETAIL BEEF PRICE CLIMBS FROM YEAR AGO, PORK AND CHICKEN STEADY

The retail price for beef increased from a year ago in March, while the retail price for pork and chicken softened. The all-fresh retail beef price was $9.55 per pound in March, softening from $9.64 per pound in February but an increase of $1.12 per pound (+13%) from last year. Ground beef was reported at $6.86 per pound in March, up $0.73 per pound (+12%) from last year. Rounds increased $1.06 per pound (+12%) from last year to $9.61 per pound in March but fell slightly by $0.49 per pound from the prior month. Steaks were reported at $12.73 per pound in March and on par with the prior month but increased $1.75 per pound compared to the prior year.

Retail pork prices have softened since the start of the year from $4.94 per pound in January to $4.90 per pound in February and $4.87 per pound in March. March’s retail pork price was down $0.08 per pound (-2%) from a year ago and the lowest monthly price since February 2025 ($4.84). Retail prices for bacon, pork chops, and ham were all lower than a year ago in March. In March, the retail ham price fell $0.06 per pound (-1%) to $4.44 per pound, bacon decreased $0.18 per pound (-3%) to $6.80, and pork chops were lower by $0.16 per pound (-4%) to $4.18 per pound.

The retail composite broiler price in March was reported at $2.41 per pound, down $0.05 per pound (-2%) from last year. Since the start of 2022, the retail composite broiler price has stayed within a $0.32 per pound range between $2.22 to $2.54 per pound with an average of $2.44 per pound. The retail whole chicken price was $2.03 per pound in March, down $0.03 per pound (-2%) from last year. Since November 2024, the retail whole chicken price has been above $2 per pound, ranging from $2.02 to $2.09 per pound with an average of $2.06 per pound. Overall, retail chicken prices remain steady.

CORN PRICES SPIKE HIGHER FOLLOWING GENERAL TREND IN COMMODITIES

            Corn prices in Omaha in the last half of March reached $4.50 per bushel, the high for the crop year that began last September. The low price for Omaha corn prices this crop year was last September at $3.90 per bushel. Prices have risen steadily as export prospects have improved with the decline in the US dollar in foreign currency markets and stable trading conditions with our best grain customers such as Mexico, Japan, and South Korea. Even Western Europe is taking considerably more corn than several years ago. According to USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), corn exports should set a record this crop year at 3.3 billion bushels, up from 2.858 billion bushels last year and 2.255 billion bushels in the 2023/24 crop year.

            Demand for corn from the domestic ethanol industry has also been holding steady during the last few years. Corn consumed for ethanol and its by-products are expected to be up to 5.6 billion bushels this crop year from 5.436 billion bushels in the 2024/25 crop year and from 5.489 billion bushels in 2023/2024.

            The USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) reported in late March that inventories of corn on March 1 were record-large for March 1 at nine billion bushels. Inventories stored in elevators off-farm were slightly less than a year ago (-2%) and generally below the amount of corn stored in elevators off farms on March 1 in the years between 2017 and 2022. Corn inventories stored on farms this March 1 were unprecedentedly large at 5.4 billion bushels, 900 million more bushels than a year ago and topping the previous March 1 record set in 2019 at 5.2 billion bushels. Corn prices in the first week of April declined about $0.20 from their highs in late March.

            The effects of large corn inventories on farms in the spring of 2019 on corn prices were muted. Corn prices settled back slightly in April but then began to gradually recover as the focus shifted to crop weather development conditions that were less than ideal. It is also worth noting that crop year corn prices in those years tended to average close to $3.50 per bushel at the farm.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)