Livestock Monitor – 6/8/2026
NEW WORLD SCREWWORM CASES DETECTED IN U.S.
USDA confirmed on June 8, 2026, two additional cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas, bringing the total number of cases to four. These two new cases involve a calf in La Salle County and a dog, which had recently been in Mexico, in Andrews County. The original first two cases were confirmed in very young calves found about 6 miles apart in Zavala County. La Salle and Zavala Counties are in South Texas while Andrews County is in West Texas, bordering New Mexico. USDA is establishing 20-kilometer infested zones around each detection site, including quarantines, surveillance, and movement controls within the area.
As news first broke of the first suspected case of NWS on June 3, 2026, which was later confirmed that evening, futures contracts for feeder and fed cattle reacted sharply lower. The market reaction was not unexpected, and as further information became available, feeder and fed cattle contracts rallied higher the following day. Currently, weekly Southern Plains feeder cattle prices (700-800 lbs., medium & large) throughout May have ranged from $370 to $395 per cwt with an average of $ 384 per cwt, which is about $90 per cwt higher than last year. The 5-area fed steer price continues to move seasonally higher with last week at $257 per cwt, which is an increase of $30 per cwt (+13%) from last year and an increase of $25 per cwt (+11%) from the start of the year. Seasonally, feeder and fed prices usually reach a peak during the second half of the year.
Fundamentally speaking, further spread of NWS could result in an additional reduction of available cattle supplies, which would likely lower beef supplies. Further supply impacts will hinge partly on how USDA responds to contain the NWS case and to what degree further spread of the pest can be controlled. Year-to-date through May, total domestic beef production is tracking more than -5% below year-ago levels. This comes at a time beef demand is at an all-time high in the U.S. and will likely remain strong despite the all-fresh retail beef price approaching $10 per pound.
HOG SECTOR UPDATE
The June Hogs and Pigs report will be released later this month by USDA-NASS on June 25, 2026. The focus in the June report will be on the breeding herd and sow farrowings as those are driving factors into production through 2026 and into 2027. Prior Hogs and Pigs reports have been showing a measured approach to production. This is evident by the breeding herd remaining below six million head for over a year and sow farrowings tracking below three million head for the better part of two years. With year-to-date sow slaughter through May down about 45,000 head (-4%), the June report will likely signal that these trends are expected to continue.
Pigs per litter is a driving factor in production for the hog sector and that was reported at 11.90 for the December-February period, which was the high for that period. As a part of its measured approach to production, the hog sector appears to be focusing on production growth that occurs through efficiency gains in pigs per litter rather than adding additional sows. This is evident by year-to-date hog slaughter through May, up less than one percent. Year-to-date through May, dressed weights are up more than one pound on average from last year. This has helped support pork production since the start of the year, which is up just over +1% through May.
DAIRY MARKET PRICE TRENDS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP IN SECOND HALF
The dairy herd expansion continues to move ahead in 2026 with 79,000 cows added to the herd from December to April. A year ago, 100,000 cows were added to the herd during the same interval. Milk production during the first quarter of this year was up +3% with 1% of the increase accounted for by more milk per cow. Assuming milk cow productivity this quarter matches the gain in the first quarter of 2026, milk production should be up close to +3% from a year ago in the spring quarter. The All-Milk price at the farm reported by USDA-NASS averaged $18.50 per cwt in the first quarter, down close to $5 from a year earlier and down $1 from the last quarter in 2025. It was expected that the downward trend in milk prices that began in the first quarter of 2025 would put a lid on dairy herd expansion this year. There is little indication of herd liquidation in the national total, although cow numbers in the Northeast US (NY, PA, and VT) are down slightly.
Class 4 milk prices are the highlight of the dairy market so far this year as milk powder prices averaged $1.80. Non-fat dry milk prices went from $1.16 in December to $2.09 this month, the highest price since 2014. Non-fat dry milk production in April was up +11% from a year ago. Domestic disappearance of non-fat dry milk in the first quarter was more than double the volume of a year ago. Class 4 milk prices have been lifted by rising prices for non-fat dry milk and butter prices so far this year, averaging $13.55 per cwt in January to $20.22 in April. Butter prices started the year around $1.40 per pound, moved to $1.90 in March, and have drifted lower since then. The All-Milk price averaged $20.80 in April, up $3 from its low in January and only $0.30 below the April 2025 price.
Butter prices are forecast to average $1.75 this quarter, although current prices are $0.15 below this projection. The Class 4 milk price for the quarter is expected to move lower than the high in April as the butter price trend more than offsets the strong price for milk powder with an average in the $18-$19 range. The weaker Class 4 price should also weigh on the All-Milk price for the remainder of this quarter. The cheddar block price is nearly $1.65 a pound currently, which should be close to the quarterly average. The Class 3 milk price average for the quarter is pegged at $16.50 per cwt, up from the first quarter average of $15.23.
Weaker price trends for milk should limit additional gains in the milk cow herd in the second half of the year. Milk production in the second half is forecast to be like the last six months of 2025. This should stabilize milk and dairy product price trends. Both butter and cheddar block prices are forecast to rally back to $1.90-$2.00 in the second half of 2026.
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