Livestock Marketing Information Center
In The Cattle Markets
Updated: 10/28/2024
Cattle on Feed Report & Thoughts on Herd Expansion
On Friday, October 25th USDA NASS released the latest Cattle on Feed report (https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/m326m174z/tb09m065p/6682zx83w/cofd1024.pdf). October 1st inventory was estimated at 11.60 million, on par with 2023. Placements in September were estimated at 2.16 million, down 2% from 2023 while marketings were estimated at 1.70 million, up 2% from 2023. The inventory and marketing estimates were in-line with public pre-report estimates while September placements came in on the higher end of expectations (down but not down as much as most analysts projected). Taken as a whole, this report is not likely to be a market-mover while perhaps signaling some feeder cattle being pulled ahead for placement in September and/or current feeder cattle supplies being larger than expected.
Livestock Monitor
Updated: 10/25/2024
CATTLE ON FEED
Cattle on feed as of October 1 came in essentially even (-0.03%) with a year ago at 11.6 million head. This was in line with industry analysts’ pre-report estimates which were expecting cattle on feed to decline -0.3% with estimates ranging from down -0.8% to up +0.1% from a year ago. Cattle marketings for the month of September was up +2.0% from last year to 1.698 million head, which was within the range of estimates and slightly below the average pre-report estimates. On average, analysts were expecting cattle marketings to be up +2.2% from last year with estimates ranging from down -1.9% to up +3.4% from a year ago.
POULTRY UPDATE
Chicken production was picking up momentum in the third quarter of the year, topping year earlier output by +2.7%. Chicken production during the first half of the year was close to identical with a year earlier. Chicken production in the last quarter of 2024 is forecast to be up +4%, bringing the annual tally up +2.2% from 2023. The risk on the forecast in the current quarter is to the upside as average bird eights were record-heavy during the summer and a continuation of this trend would add an additional +1% to production.
COLD STORAGE
USDA NASS released the Cold Storage report and in September, total red meat stocks were 899.8 million pounds, down -1.1% from last year. Total beef stocks saw a decline of -1.7% from the same month last year to 413.8 million pounds. In September, pork in cold storage saw a decline of -0.3% from a year ago to 460.1 million pounds. Lamb and mutton stocks were nearly 25.0 million pounds, down -4.5% from last year.
