Livestock Monitor – 12/20/2024

DECEMBER HOGS AND PIGS REPORT

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the December Hogs and Pigs report, which showed a less than one percent (+0.5%) increase in all hogs and pigs inventory levels to just over 75.8 million head. This was slightly higher than analysts’ average pre-report estimates, which were expecting all hogs and pigs to remain even with a year ago.

Market hogs were reported at just over 69.8 million head, an increase of +0.5% from a year ago. Analysts were expecting a marginal decline of -0.1% from a year ago. Market hogs by weight categories showed hogs weighing less than 50 lbs. and 50-119 lbs. were both higher than a year ago by +1.2% and +1.4%, respectively, to 21.8 and 19.4 million head. This was slightly higher than average pre-report estimates, which were expecting both categories to increase +0.5% and +0.3%, respectively. The heavier weight market hog categories showed slightly lower inventory levels for hogs weighing 120-179 lbs. (-0.6%) and hogs weighing over 180 lbs. (-0.5%) to 14.8 and 13.6 million head, respectively. Average pre-report estimates had both categories down -0.6% and -1.0%, respectively, for hogs weighing 120-179 lbs. and hogs weighing over 180 lbs. The lower inventory for the heavier weight hog categories signals marginally lower hog slaughter going into the first quarter of 2025. The slightly higher inventory levels for the lighter weight hog categories indicate increased hog slaughter levels moving into the second quarter of 2025.

The breeding herd remained at 6.0 million head, up fractionally (+0.1%) and in line with average pre-report estimates, which were expecting the breeding herd to remain flat. September-to-November pigs per litter increased +2.3% to a record of 11.92. This was larger than analysts were expecting, which was an increase of +0.6% on average with a range of estimates from +0.1% to +1.1%. Sow farrowings for the September-to-November period were 2.955 million head, down less than one percent (-0.2%) and spot on with average pre-report estimates. The larger pigs per litter more than offset the marginal decline in farrowings, leading to a +2.0% increase in the September-to-November pig crop to 35.2 million head. Farrowing intentions for December-to-February and March-to-May were both up +0.8% and +1.8%, respectively, from a year ago to 2.952 and 2.964 million head. Both were higher than analysts’ pre-report expectations.

DECEMBER CATTLE ON FEED

The USDA-NASS published its latest Cattle on Feed report Friday, detailing feedlot conditions as of December 1st. Overall, on-feed, marketings, and placements aligned closely with analysts’ pre-report expectations. On-feed estimates as of December 1st were virtually unchanged from last year, decreasing slightly by -0.3% to just under 12 million head. Pre-report estimates projected on-feed numbers to decline by only -0.1%, with a margin of error ranging from down -0.6% to up +0.3%. Geographically, declines in Texas (-1%; 30,000 head), Arizona (-12.8%; 34,000 head), and Kansas
(-3.2%; 80,000 head) were nearly offset by increases out of Nebraska (+0.8%; 20,000 head), Iowa (+3.1%; 20,000 head), Colorado (+2.9%; 30,000 head), and Oklahoma (+12.3%; 40,000 head).

Placements on feed during November totaled 1.8 million head, a decrease of -3.7%, or 69,000 head. Analysts’ expectations anticipated placements to fall within a downward range of -7.4% to -1.1%, with an average decline of -4.1%. Regionally, placements fell predominantly in the western and southern regions, while increases were sustained out of the Midwest. Notable declines included Colorado (-12.9%; 20,000 head) and Texas (-11.5%; 45,000 head) whereas Kansas (+3.9%; 15,000 head) and Nebraska (+4.1%; 20,000 head) saw notable increases. By weight category, placements decreased across all groups except for 900-999 lb. animals, which grew by +3.6% to 145,000 head;1,000+ lb. animals remained unchanged in November at 85,000 head. Among lighter weight groups, cattle weighing less than 600 lbs. experienced the largest decline, falling by -6.6% to 495,000 head. Declines for other weight groups included 600-699 lbs., down -4.5% to 420,000 head, 700-799 lbs., down -1.3% to 375,000 head, and 800-899 lbs., down -4.8% to 276,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle in November decreased by -1.5% to 1.7 million. Pre-report estimates had marketings declining by an average of -1.8%, with a downward range of -2.3% to -1.3%. The most significant changes were observed in Texas, falling -9.6% (35,000 head), Colorado, down -13.3% (20,000 head), Kansas, down -3.8% (15,000 head), and Nebraska which increased +9.1% (40,000 head).

CHICKEN AND TURKEY MARKETS IN GOOD BALANCE AT YEAR END

USDA-NASS estimates of poultry in cold storage on December 1 were in line with, or below expectations, signifying that consumer demand for the holiday quarter is not a problem. This is a better situation than last year when burdensome inventories were creating significant price weakness for both turkey and chicken as the year ended.

Frozen turkey inventories on December 1 were unchanged from a year earlier. Frozen whole turkey inventory was down -9% from a year earlier at 49 million pounds, historically a very low volume. Tom turkeys in freezers were down -32% at 23 million pounds, possibly a record low in recent history while hen inventories were up +28% from December 1, 2023. Frozen whole bird prices have been volatile this month, ranging from $0.75 to $1.05 per pound, consistent with limited availability and short-term-oriented demand. If frozen whole bird inventories remain below 50 million pounds at year-end, then there may not be seasonal price weakness in early 2025.

Frozen chicken inventories on December 1 were -8% less than twelve months earlier. Frozen inventories of parts and meat increased by only 8 million pounds in November, compared to a 30-million-pound increase in November 2023. Chicken production during November came in 17 million pounds less than last November due to one less kill day, helping to explain some of the lack in freezer inventory buildup. Wholesale chicken parts and meat prices have been stable this December.

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