Livestock Monitor – 6/20/2025

CATTLE ON FEED

Cattle on Feed was released by the USDA-NASS earlier today. Overall, cattle on feed as of June 1 was down -1.2% from last year to 11,442 thousand head, a result that was anticipated by average pre-report expectations. Losses in cattle on feed were attributed to losses in both marketings of fed cattle (-10.1% to 1,758 thousand head) and placements of cattle on feed (-7.8% to 1,886 thousand head) during the month of May; no discrepancies were observed with pre-report estimates. Specific to fed cattle marketings, analysts were off by only 0.2%, having estimated an average decline in animal numbers of -9.9% and within a range of down   -10.7% to -5%. Marketings during May were attributable to one less slaughter day occurring compared to May of last year along with overall tight supplies restricting the number of cattle available for slaughter. Saturday slaughter, a common catch-up day for packers, was down -67% during the month; meanwhile, Friday slaughter fell -13% Y/Y.

Cattle placed in feedlots was also within pre-report expectations. Analysts had forecasted an average decline by -5.8% and within a range of down -2.3% to -12%, putting report realizations down by roughly -2% more than what was anticipated, but within range. Among the mix of cattle placed, cattle less than 600 pounds experienced a decline of -15.2% to 335 thousand head, followed by 600-to-699-pound feeders, which fell off by -12.7% to 275 thousand head. 700, 800, and 1,000+ pound cattle fell by -7.2%, -2.8%, and -11.1%, respectively, to 450, 516, and 80 thousand head; 900 lb. cattle were flat with last year, documenting 230 thousand head.    

HOG PRICES CLIMB HIGHER

Prices for feeder pigs, slaughter hogs, and the pork cutout value have moved higher in recent weeks. Feeder pig prices started to move counter-seasonally higher with early weaned (10-12 lbs.) pig prices rising from $44.41 per head in mid-April to last week’s price of $53.20 per head. At this time last year, early weaned feeder pigs were trending below $40 per head. Prices for 40-pound feeder pigs have held steady between $79.28 to $83.94 per head since late April, bucking the typical seasonal decline during this time of year. During this time a year ago, 40-pound feeder pig prices were trending below $60 per head. Seasonally, early weaned and 40-pound feeder pig prices reach a low in July—that may not be the case this year.

Slaughter hog prices (national base, weighted average carcass) started the year around $80 per cwt and moved generally higher during the first quarter to the upper $80 per cwt range. In early April, slaughter hog prices briefly dipped from about $87 per cwt to $84 per cwt. Since that dip, weekly slaughter hog prices have moved quickly higher to last week’s price of $99.11 per cwt. That’s an increase of nearly $15 per cwt (+18%) since the dip to $84 per cwt about two months ago. Seasonally, slaughter hog prices rise through the first half of the year then steadily decline through the second half of the year. Last year, slaughter hog prices peaked at $91.91 per cwt the first week of August. If slaughter hog prices follow a similar trend to last year, the peak price may still be a few weeks away.

The pork cutout value reached $113.36 per cwt last week, which was up $13.07 per cwt (+13%) from the same week last year. Over the last two months, the pork cutout value has risen $20.73 per cwt (+22%) from $92.63 per cwt in early April. Support for the pork cutout has come from most of the pork primal values, which have each seen sizable increases over the last several weeks. Seasonally, the pork cutout value reaches its peak in July.

DAIRY PRODUCT DEMAND KEEPING PACE WITH EXPANDING MILK COW HERD

USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS) released estimates of April dairy product usage earlier this week. All the numbers topped forecast assumptions for the quarter. Butter consumption for the quarter was pegged to increase by 12 million pounds; April usage was up 36 million pounds. Chalk this up to more production as the industry produced eight million more pounds at an average wholesale price that was $0.63 per pound lower than a year ago. The bulge in usage likely represents inventory refilling in distribution channels, but wholesale prices have continued to move gradually higher in May and June, implying that inventory problems in distribution channels are not significant. Wholesale butter prices finished April at $2.34 per pound, moved slightly higher in May, and as of mid-June, have approached $2.50. Butter prices were expected to average near $2.50 for the quarter, but production has been significantly higher than expected. It is comforting to see that the additional production has moved into distribution channels instead of cold storage.

the higher level of butter production during the second quarter prompts upward revisions to the butter production forecast for the second half of the year. The additional butter supply should keep butter prices trading in a range of $2.50-$2.60 per pound (instead of $2.60-$2.75 per pound) and Class 4 milk prices averaging $20-$22 per cwt.

American-type cheese usage in April was staging a strong rebound, up 11 million pounds from a year earlier. American-type cheese usage in the first quarter was down 12 million pounds from the first quarter of 2024 and was below year-ago levels in all four quarters of 2024. The forecast was calling for a 28-million-pound decline in usage for the quarter. Block cheddar prices in wholesale markets averaged $1.80 in the first quarter but were $0.10 below that in March, possibly spurring some bargain hunting. Usage in the second quarter is now pegged to be up slightly from last year, and block cheddar prices should average $1.88 for the quarter instead of close to $1.80. The current price is close to $1.95. Inventories of cheese in cold storage at the end of April were below year-ago levels, which sets the stage for firm cheese prices in the second half of the year. The big question mark is how many more cows will be added to the dairy herd in coming months. The forecast assumes that the size of the milk cow herd will stabilize for a few months.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)