Livestock Monitor – 4/11/2025

RETAIL MEAT PRICES

Retail meat prices continued to trend higher through the first quarter of 2025. In March, the all-fresh retail beef price reached a record of $8.42 per pound, up +6.8% ($0.54 per pound) from the prior year. The ground beef price surged to a record of $6.14 per pound in March, up +11.1% ($0.62 per pound) from last year. Roasts were at $7.99 per pound in March, essentially unchanged from last month’s record of $8.00 per pound, and up +8.1% ($0.60 per pound) from last year. Steaks were $11.92 per pound, an increase of +3.4% ($0.39 per pound) from the same month last year.

The retail pork price was $4.95 per pound in March, near the same highs reached in September 2022 ($5.00 per pound), October 2022 ($5.05 per pound), and October 2023 ($5.04 per pound). March’s retail pork price was +3.3% ($0.16 per pound) above the prior year. The retail bacon price in March was just below $7 per pound at $6.98 per pound, an increase of +5.6% ($0.37 per pound) from last year. In March, retail prices for chops and hams increased from last year by +2.0% and +0.5%, respectively, to $4.34 and $4.50 per pound.

The broiler composite retail chicken price was $2.45 per pound in March, up less than one percent (+0.8%), or $0.02 per pound, from last year. The whole bird chicken price was $2.06 per pound in March, up +3.74% ($0.07 per pound) from last year and the second highest on record behind $2.08 per pound in November 2024. Eggs were at a record $6.23 per pound in March, more than double the $2.99 per pound price in March last year.

LIVESTOCK FEED MARKETS STABLE AS WORLD MARKETS SWIRL

Prices for feedstuffs have been unusually stable during the last six weeks while most financial and
energy markets have swung across wide ranges. Corn prices in Omaha have traded within a 10 cent
per bushel range since late February with one week dipping outside of that range. Soybean meal prices
stayed within a $10 per ton band in Central Illinois over the six-week period but then dipped below that
in the first week of April. This is quite a contrast to crude oil prices that have moved to the lowest prices
in over three years and stock market indices that touched their lowest values since late 2023.

The USDA-World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released their updated monthly projections
for agriculture commodity markets on April 9. The forecasts only cover the current crop year that ends
this August. The forecast for the corn market is consistent with an optimistic view of global demand for
US corn. The corn export projection was raised to 2.55 billion bushels from the prior projection of 2.45
billion bushels. This is the biggest US corn export volume since the 2020-2021 crop year when exports
totaled 2.747 billion bushels. The forecast for corn usage through industrial channels like ethanol, food
products, and seed was left unchanged from the prior projection at 6.89 billion bushels. This would be
the largest usage going through these market channels since 2017-2018. The USDA-WAOB did not
adjust its expectation for average corn prices at the farm for this crop year, holding them unchanged
with the prior forecast at $4.35 per bushel.

The LMIC also prepares a forecast of the US grain and soybean markets, with slight adjustments
made for variations in livestock and poultry industry assumptions. So far this year, LMIC has tended to
project corn prices for the year 10-15 cents above the USDA-WAOB price. This month is no different,
although the divergence is a little greater as the upward adjustments in exports is expected to provide
more support for prices, leading to an average farm corn price of $4.60 (up from $4.50).

The major feature of the LMIC forecast is the projection for the 2025-2026 corn crop year price.
Last week, the USDA reported on farmer intentions to plant crops this spring. In that report, farmers
indicated corn plantings of 95.4 million acres, up from 90.6 million acres in 2024 and significantly more
than LMIC and other analysts had expected early in the year. The corn price forecast for the 2025-2026
crop year had been expected to hold up close to this year’s value in the $4.40-$4.60 range. The larger
corn production coming from more planted acres matched up against steady assumptions for export
and domestic usage lowers the average corn price forecast for 2025-2026 into the $4.00-$4.20 range.

MEAT TRADE UPDATE

The USDA-ERS released meat trade data late last week for the month of February. On the beef side, imports totaled 371.9 million pounds, an increase of +5.9% from the same time last year, with year-to-date imports up +14.6% to 979.9 million pounds. These year-over-year gains were largely driven by a +113.9% surge in imports from Argentina, reaching 10.6 million pounds, followed by increases from Uruguay (+40.2% to 35.3 million pounds) and Mexico (+15.6% to 50.8 million pounds). Beef exports, meanwhile, continued to decline in 2025, with accumulated totals down -4.0% to 457.6 million pounds and February exports down -6.9% year over year to 227.4 million pounds. The monthly decline was driven by reduced shipments to China (-16.4% to 34.3 million pounds), Taiwan (-23.7% to 12.0 million pounds), and Mexico (-12.1% to 26.6 million pounds).

For pork, total imports in February were down -6.3% year over year to 89.8 million pounds, while year-to-date imports were down -4.9% to 184.3 million pounds. Declines year over year occurred across all major trade partners, with the most notable drop coming from Canada, which fell -5.6% to 57.4 million pounds. On the export side, pork shipments in February were down -4.8% year over year to 565.2 million pounds, with year-to-date exports down -3.3% to 1.1 billion pounds. Key declines compared to February last year were recorded in Mexico (-1.7% to 214.6 million pounds), Japan

(-18.7% to 71.2 million pounds), and South Korea (-14.1% to 55.7 million pounds).

In the poultry market, broiler imports decreased by -2.5% year over year in February to 12 million pounds, with accumulated imports for 2025 down -6.0% to 25.9 million pounds. Broiler exports were nearly flat year over year, up just +0.1% to 547.1 million pounds, while year-to-date exports fell -8.3% to 1.1 billion pounds.

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