Livestock Monitor – 9/26/2025
SEPTEMBER HOGS AND PIGS REPORT
All hogs and pigs were reported at 74.5 million head as of September 1, according to the USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). This decline of -1.3% (1.0 million head) from the prior year was in the opposite direction of the average pre-report expectation, which was anticipating a marginal increase of +0.4%. The breeding herd fell -1.8% (109 thousand head) from last year to 5.934 million head, the lowest since 2014 (5.920 million head). Pre-report estimates were expecting a -0.5% decline in the breeding herd from last year.
The June-August pig crop was down -2.6% (902 thousand head) from last year to 34.078 million head and well below analysts’ average pre-report estimate, which were expecting an increase of +0.5% from last year. The decreased pig crop was driven by lower farrowings, which more than offset a +0.9% increase in pigs per litter to 11.82 and in line with pre-report estimates. Farrowings for the June-August period was reported at 2.883 million head, a decrease of -3.4% (102 thousand head) from last year. Analysts were expecting a decline of -0.4% in June-August farrowings, but the actual decline in farrowings was much stronger than anticipated. Farrowing intentions for the September-November was reported down -1.4% to 2.884 million head while the December-February period was reported up +1.2% to 2.864 million head. Pre-report expectations had farrowing intentions up less than one percent for both periods.
Market hogs were 68.538 million head, down -1.3% (909 thousand head) and the opposite direction of pre-report estimates, which were expecting a marginal increase of +0.4%. Reported inventory levels for the market hog weight categories were mixed. Hogs in the 180 lbs. and over and the 120-179 lbs. weight categories were reported up +0.3% and +0.4%, respectively, from last year. Hogs weighing 50-119 lbs. and under 50 lbs. were reported down -2.3% and -2.4%, respectively, from last year. Overall, the September Hogs and Pigs report was lower than expected, signaling tighter market-ready hog supplies through the remainder of the year and into the first part of 2026.
CATTLE ON FEED IN THE SOUTH FALLS BUT INCREASES IN THE NORTH
Cattle on Feed was released last Friday by USDA-NASS, documenting just under 11.1 million head on feed as of September 1, a -1.1% loss year over year. Contractions in on-feed inventories were the result of reductions in both placements on feed and marketings of fed cattle in August. Prior to the report, analysts had expected placements to be down -9% and marketings down -12.9%. The realization was instead placements down -9.9% to 1.78 million head and marketings down -13.6% to 1.57 million head. Total cattle on feed and placements were within pre-report ranges; however, marketings were over the maximum decline by 0.1%.
On the national scale, placements by weight category experienced near uniform declines with cattle less than 600lbs. falling -10.1% to 355,000 head, cattle 600-699lbs. declining -13.1% to 265,000 head, cattle 700-799lbs. decreasing -10.3% to 390,000 head, 800-899 lb. cattle shrinking -12.7% to 420,000 head, 900-999lb. cattle lessening -3.7% to 260,000 head, and 1,000lb.+ cattle remaining flat with last year at 90,000 head.
Regional differences were more defined in August compared to prior months this year. Notably, by September 1, cattle on-feed numbers in northern states expanded year over year as southern states grappled with declines. States further north, including Washington (+8.16%), Idaho (+4.8%), Iowa (+4.6%), Nebraska (+4.7%), and South Dakota (+5.4%) cumulatively experienced an increase in on-feed inventories by +5%, or 185,000 head, while states closer to the border including Texas (-9.1%), Oklahoma (-4.6%), Arizona (-5.6%), and California (-8.7%) cumulatively saw declines of -8.4%, or 323,000 head. In the middle, Colorado saw declines by -8.3% (80,000 head), while Kansas saw a +4.7% increase (70,000 head). If we consider placements and marketings regionally, all aforementioned states experienced losses to marketings during the month, while Washington (+13.9%) and Arizona (+20%) were the only two states to observe increases in placements. Although there were some increases, the rally only amounted to 8,000 head, which is a bleak comparison to the 198,000 head loss experienced cumulatively in all the other states.
MILK COW HERD AT 9.52 MILLION HEAD IN AUGUST; HIGHEST SINCE 1993
USDA-NASS estimated that 10,000 dairy cows were added to the milk cow herd in August, an increase of 186,000 cows over the last twelve months. Upward revisions were made to milk production and its components for July (milk cows and milk per cow) resulting in milk production for July being up +4.2% from a year earlier. Milk production in August was up +3.2%. Milk cow productivity is also posting bigger gains compared to a year ago than during the first half of the year.
Summer quarter dairy herd expansion is being led by Idaho with 11,000 more cows and Kansas, with 8,000 more cows added in the two months since June. California has added 5,000 cows this summer, the biggest increase this state has seen since 2012. Other states recording notable increases were Georgia, New York, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, and Vermont. The pace of dairy herd expansion so far this year puts the industry on track for the herd to average 9.475 million head for 2025. This compares with 9.342 million head last year and 9.386 million head in 2023. Milk production this year should be up +1.9% at 230 billion pounds.
The milk production increases in July and August allow for a projected +3% increase in milk production in the summer quarter. More dairy product production naturally flows from the additional milk. Butter production in July was up +10% from a year earlier. Consequently, wholesale butter prices fell -10% from July to August. Cheddar cheese production was up +7% and Italian-type cheese production was up +4% from a year ago in July. The Class 3 milk price is forecast to average close to $17.50 per cwt in the second half of this year before rebounding early next year while Class 4 milk prices average around $19.00 per cwt in the second half of this year based on the current increases in milk production.
Livestock Monitor (pdf)