Livestock Monitor – 8/1/2025
CATTLE INVENTORY AND CATTLE ON FEED REPORTS
Last week, USDA-NASS released their July Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports, both of which suggested that the U.S. cattle herd is likely nearing its cyclical low, although any definitive signs of expansion remain unclear. The projected 2025 calf crop was estimated at 33.1 million head, which is down roughly -1.4% from two years ago, reflecting tighter supplies and continued contraction in the national herd. As of July 1, beef cow inventories were estimated down from 2023 by -1.2% to 28.7 million head; replacement beef heifers also declined -2.6% to 3.7 million head. Heifers on feed represented 38.1% of total feedlot inventories, corresponding to a pullback of -1.5% from the same quarter in 2024. The last time significant retention efforts were observed was in 2015, when heifers’ contribution to the feedlot mix fell three consecutive quarters by -3.3% to -3.5%, meaning any substantial heifer retention is likely not yet underway. These compounding factors have brought the number of feeder cattle outside of feedlots to the lowest levels ever observed (-2% from 2023 to 34 million head) since cattle on feed was added to the July Cattle report in 1994.
June feedlot placements were a major unexpected upset last week, having fallen -8% year over year to 1.4 million head, counter to analysts having anticipated a maximum decline of only -3.2%. Marketings also fell outside of the forecasted range, declining -4.4% to 1.7 million head in June, compared to the -4.1% analysts had pegged as a maximum loss. Together, the two drug total cattle on feed as of July 1 down -1.6%, which was -0.6% outside of the bottom end of pre-report expectations. The resulting losses in placements relative to the volume of cattle marketed for slaughter, has kept cattle on feed inventories extended for longer than in years past. Cattle on feed over 150 days was up +16.1% in June, while cattle on feed over 180 days was up +45.1%. Moving forward, 2025 is likely to be a stabilization year as the industry grapples with uncertain trade and financing environments. However, modest expansion could begin in 2026 contingent on favorable pasture conditions and overall profitability. Although, any growth that occurs will likely be limited, cautious, and gradual.
JUNE RED MEAT AND POULTRY STOCKS LOWER
Total red meat in cold storage was reported at 839 million pounds in June, down -7% (59 million pounds) from the prior year. In June, total beef in cold storage fell -12% to 21 million pounds. The decline was due to a 7 million pound (-6%) decrease in boneless beef to 354 million pounds and beef cuts falling 3 million pounds (-24%) to 41 million pounds. Lamb and mutton stocks were down -12% (3 million lbs.) to 21 million pounds.
Pork in cold storage totaled 422 million pounds in June, down -11% from a year earlier. The decline was driven by lower levels for bellies, hams, butts, and other pork. Bellies were down -28% (17 million lbs.) to 44 million pounds, hams fell -13% (17 million lbs.) to 111 million pounds, butts declined -11% (2 million lbs.) to 18 million pounds, and other pork fell -16% (8 million lbs.) to 43 million pounds. Gains in cold storage stocks were seen for loins, picnics, and spareribs. Loins rose +11% (4 million lbs.) to 37 million pounds, picnics were up +28% (2 million lbs.) to 7 million pounds, and spareribs increased 3% (2 million lbs.) to 65 million pounds.
Total poultry stocks declined -4% (52 million lbs.) from a year ago. The decrease in June poultry stocks was driven by a -16% (71 million lbs.) decline in turkey stocks to 376 million pounds. Whole turkeys fell -8% (19 million lbs.) to 205 million pounds, breast meat was down -14% (13 million lbs.) to 79 million pounds, and legs dropped -48% (3 million lbs.) to 3 million pounds in June. The decline in turkey stocks more than offset a +3% (21 million lbs.) increase of chicken in cold storage to 752 million pounds. Breast meat rose +10% (21 million lbs.) to 227 million pounds, leg quarters were up +1% (341 thousand lbs.) to 55 million pounds, and wings increased +5% (3 million lbs.) to 52 million pounds. Eggs in cold storage fell -48% (14 million lbs.) in June to 16 million pounds.
DAIRY HERD EXPANSION CONTINUES TO BE BRISK; MILK PRICES HOLD STEADY
The nation’s milk cow herd in June was 9.469 million cows, up from 9.355 million cows six months ago. Four thousand cows were added to the herd in June according to the preliminary estimate by USDA-NASS. This followed two consecutive months of 29 thousand head additions per month. Over the last twelve months, the national dairy herd has expanded by +1.5%. The expansion is consistent with milk production profitability last year that was at the highest levels in about a decade.
The expansion has outpaced expectations that were in place at the end of the winter quarter as well as the start of 2025. Milk production in the April-June quarter was up +2.4% from last year. At the beginning of April, milk production for the quarter was only expected to be up +1.7%, and the All Milk price reported by USDA-NASS was forecast to be $23 per cwt. for the spring quarter. The actual realized All Milk price for the spring quarter was $21.20 per cwt., largely due to the additional milk supply. The April-June 2024 All Milk price averaged $21.73 per cwt.
Consumer demand for dairy products during the spring quarter was good. April and May data for butter and cheese consumption was trending favorably. Butter consumption was up +6% from a year earlier. American cheese consumption was up +2.6%. Non-American type cheese (mostly Italian types) was up +0.3%, but this is better than the year-over-year declines that were registered in the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. Current trends in consumer use are keeping cold storage inventories of butter and cheese close to year-ago levels that lead to a stable price outlook for these products.
Livestock Monitor (pdf)