Livestock Monitor – 8/15/2025

MID-YEAR TRADE UPDATE

The USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS) recently released June trade data, allowing for a mid-year update on trade flow dynamics. Beef imports continue to track above year-ago levels with each month this year higher than last year. Through the first six months of the year, beef imports totaled more than 2.9 billion pounds, an increase of +33% (737 million pounds) from last year. Gains in year-to-date beef imports were seen from most markets with Brazil up +107%, followed by Australia (+35%), New Zealand (+8%), and Mexico (+9%), while Canada fell -6%. From January to June, beef exports fell -8% (116 million pounds) to nearly 1.4 million pounds. Beef exports to South Korea increased +9%, but this was more than offset by declines to Japan (-2%), Mexico (-9%), China (-39%), and Canada (-10%).

Pork imports through the first half of the year fell to 556 million pounds (-6%, or 33 million pounds). This decline was due mainly to a -7% (24 million pounds) decrease from Canada to 337 million pounds. Pork exports totaled roughly 348 million pounds through the first half of the year, down -2% (87 million pounds). Apart from Mexico’s +3% (33 million pound) year-to-date increase, pork exports were down to Japan (-12%), South Korea (-11%), Canada (-15%), and China (-5%).

Year-to-date through June, lamb imports are down -4% (6 million pounds) to more than 147 million pounds. Declines were seen from both Australia (-2%, or 2 million pounds) and New Zealand (-8%, or 3 million pounds) totaling 108 and 38 million pounds, respectively. Mutton imports dropped -52% (15 million pounds) through the first six months of the year to nearly 14 million pounds. Year-to-date through June, lamb exports are up +85% (361 thousand pounds) to 785 thousand pounds, and mutton exports increased +36% (812 thousand pounds) to 3 million pounds.

Broiler exports fell -4% (121 million pounds) through the first half of 2025 to 3.2 billion pounds. Turkey exports from January to June were down -16% (36 million pounds) to 192 million pounds.

RETAIL MEAT PRICES

Earlier this week, USDA-ERS released its summary of retail meat prices for July, providing a detailed look at trends across major protein categories. For the month, the all-fresh retail beef price averaged $8.90 per pound, reflecting a +9.2% ($0.75) increase compared to the same time last year. Within the beef complex, year-over-year strength was seen across all cuts, with sirloin steaks up +15.6% to $13.55 per pound, ground beef advancing +12.2% to $6.50 per pound, roasts gaining +9.9% to $8.40 per pound, and rounds moving +7.8% higher to $8.69 per pound.

Pork prices in July also saw modest upward movement, with the retail average climbing +1.8% ($0.09) to $5.01 per pound. In the breakdown, bacon was a notable contributor to the increase, rising +3.4% to $7.12 per pound. Other major pork categories, however, recorded slight declines, as all pork chops fell -1.7% to $4.33 per pound, and hams eased -1.1% to $4.66 per pound.

The broiler composite retail price averaged $2.48 per pound during the month, translating to a +2.9% ($0.07) increase from a year ago. All primary chicken products posted gains, with fresh whole chickens up +4.5% to $2.08 per pound, boneless breasts advancing +6.5% to $4.20 per pound, and chicken legs edging +0.7% higher to $1.80 per pound. Over the past year, the spread between wholesale and retail chicken prices has widened by +6.3%, as wholesale values slipped -0.6% to $1.17 per pound, while retail prices advanced.

Milk and dairy prices continued to move higher in July. Fresh whole milk averaged $4.16 per gallon, marking a +4.5% ($0.18) increase over the same month last year. Within the cheese category, gains were more pronounced for natural cheddar, which rose +7.9% to $6.04 per pound, compared with a smaller +0.7% rise for American cheese to $4.91 per pound.  

RECORD LARGE CORN HARVEST RESETS CORN PRICE OUTLOOK

Earlier this week the USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) released its first estimate of the corn and soybean harvests for this year. Corn production is expected to be large as average yields per acre are pegged at a record 188.8 bushels, up from 179.3 bushels last year. Plantings estimates were revised upward from June to 97.3 million acres from 95.2 million acres. This puts production at 16.7 billion bushels, almost two billion more bushels from a year ago. The additional two billion bushels is the biggest since 2018, when the end of the crop year inventory was 2.221 billion bushels. The current crop year (2024-25) carryout inventory is projected to be between 1.3-1.7 billion bushels.

Expanded usage and exports will need to be encouraged to limit the increase in production that is added to inventories at the end of the crop year. Corn prices are expected to trend lower to minimize inventory build-up. Prior to the USDA-NASS initial corn production estimate, the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) published by USDA-Office of the Chief Economist had been expecting corn prices at the farm in the upcoming 2025-26 crop year to average $4.20 per bushel. With the larger production estimate, they reduced their corn price forecast to $3.90. This is down from the current crop year price (preliminary) of $4.30.

The change in the outlook for soybean prices based on the initial estimate of soybean production was not as drastic as for corn. USDA-NASS did use a higher average yield per acre for soybeans, 53.6 bushels, than the basic market assumption prior to the report. Soybean plantings, relative to the June estimate, were revised downward to 80.9 million acres from the June figure of 83.4 million acres. The net result was soybean production for 2025 is now estimated to be 4.292 billion bushels, down from pre-report assumptions of 4.335 billion bushels and last year’s production of 4.366 billion bushels—not big adjustments when compared to corn market changes.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)