Livestock Monitor – 6/6/2025

REGIONAL FEEDER CATTLE PRICES

Feeder cattle prices in recent weeks have started to ease in line with typical seasonal trends, moving down marginally as summer commences and calf supplies build towards fall. However, prices remain historically elevated due to continued supply constraints and strong underlying demand. Regionally, as of the week ending May 30, 2025, 500- to 600-pound steer calves (medium and large frame, No. 1 and 2) in Washington were priced at an average of $391.32 per cwt. This represents a +19.7% increase from the same week last year, when prices were around $326.96 per cwt. In Billings, Montana, prices hit $408.89 per cwt (+20.9%), marking their highest level so far this year. In South Dakota, Nebraska, and the Southern Plains, prices averaged $405.77 (+15.3%), $392.18 (+10.6%), and $389.05 (+21.2%), respectively. In Georgia, 500-pound steers were priced at $366.63, reflecting an +18.5% increase from the previous year. Overall, across the six regions, prices have risen by an average of +17.7% year over year, equivalent to a $58.66 per cwt increase.

Since the beginning of the year, prices have steadily climbed to year-to-date highs, with an average magnitude of around +23%, which is about +2% faster than last year. Among the six regions, Washington has experienced the most dramatic rise, with prices jumping +39.3% from $298.57 in January to $416 per cwt in April. While similar growth occurred last year (+39.8%), seasonal highs were not reached until late June, raising question about whether some areas of the U.S. have yet to see their peak.

Moving forward, feeder steer prices are expected to remain above last year’s levels, although the rate of increase is likely to slow. Among the regions mentioned, Georgia and the Southern Plains have yet to break the $400 per cwt mark, while states like Nebraska and Washington have seen a decrease from peaks of approximately -6%, falling back below the $400 threshold. Although tight supplies continue to support prices, regional variations in forage conditions and placement patterns may introduce greater price fluctuations across different areas as we move forward.

MEAT TRADE UPDATE

April trade data was released last week by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS). Beef exports totaled 237 million pounds in April, a decrease of -9% from the prior year. Lower shipments in April were seen to Canada (-14%), China (-68%), Taiwan (-19%), and Mexico (-10%) while higher exports were seen to Japan (+8%) and South Korea (+15%). Year-to-date through April, beef exports are down -4% to 951 million pounds. Beef imports totaled 475 million pounds in April, up +45% from last year. Higher beef imports were seen from Australia (+33%), Brazil (+309%), and New Zealand (+49%). Through the first four months of the year, beef imports are up +28% to nearly two billion pounds.

Total pork exports were 583 million pounds in April, down -11% from a year earlier. Pork exports were lower to Canada (-36%), China (-15%), Japan (-14%), Mexico (-17%), and South Korea (-8%). Year-to-date, total pork exports are down -4% to nearly 2.4 billion pounds. Pork imports were 95 million pounds in April, down -3% from last year. Through the first four months of the year, pork imports are down -5% to 375 million pounds.

Lamb imports rose +11% in April to nearly 29 million pounds. Through the first four months of the year, lamb imports were just over 101 million pounds, which was an increase of +4% from last year. Year-to-date lamb imports are higher due to an +8% increase in imports from Australia to almost 77 million pounds, which more than offset a -5% decline in lamb imports from New Zealand to nearly 24 million pounds.

Broiler exports totaled 551 million pounds in April, up +4% from last year. Year-to-date through April, broiler exports are down -3% to almost 2.2 billion pounds. Turkey exports were 31 million pounds in April, a decrease of -24% from the previous year. Through the first four months of the year, turkey exports are down -16% to 127 million pounds, due partly to a -10% decline in year-to-date shipments to Mexico.

CORN MARKET TRENDS

The corn market has displayed some surprising weakness during the last six weeks. Nearby futures prices averaged $4.47 per bushel in May, down from $4.71 in April and the lowest monthly average since last December. This comes during a crop year with the lowest calculated corn availability for livestock and poultry feed since 2018. Corn available for animal feed is expected to be down -6% to -8% depending on where the assumption for corn inventory is on September 1 this year along with industrial and export clearances this crop year.

Looking back to 2018 as a similar year to the current as means to ascertain what to expect for the corn market in coming months has some value. In 2018, corn plantings for the 2019 crop were increasing, similar to this year, with the actual increase only one million acres. Compared to this year, current prospective planting for corn area is pegged for a 4–5-million-acre increase. In the spring of 2019, nearby corn futures prices had a modest pause in April, followed by a vigorous price rally that added 70 cents onto corn prices in the two months that followed. It is also worth noting that the early summer corn price rally came alongside a winter wheat harvest that was up +10% from a year earlier based on improved yields. The point to be made here is that the tight corn feed supply situation that exists, based on current assumptions, should exert significant upside support to corn prices in coming weeks­—that is, unless the assumptions about other components of corn demand (exports or industrial use) need to be adjusted. The USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, to be released next week, will provide some good input on the quality of those assumptions.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)