Livestock Monitor – 12/6/2024

OCTOBER TRADE UPDATE

The USDA-ERS released October meat and livestock trade data earlier today, highlighting notable trends in beef, pork, lamb, and broiler trade. Year-to-date beef imports from January to October rose +22.5% to 3.8 billion pounds, while exports declined -2.6% to 2.5 billion pounds. Brazil and Australia saw sharp import increases in October, up +189.9% and +75.6%, respectively, with year-to-date totals at 599 million pounds (+52%) and 870 million pounds (+69.4%). Canadian imports fell -9.2% year-over-year in October but are up +1.3% year to date at 836 million pounds. Mexican imports rose +4.3% in October but remain down -11.7% for the year at 495 million pounds. Year-to-date exports to South Korea, China, and Canada dropped -8.8%, -8.0%, and -7.2%, respectively, totaling 511, 394, and 212 million pounds. October exports to China rose +20%, while those to Canada fell -23.7%. Exports to Japan were flat year to date at 543 million pounds, while exports to Mexico increased +9.8% to 284 million pounds.

Pork trade has shown gains year to date with imports up +1.1% to 957 million pounds and exports up +4.5% to 5.8 billion pounds. October imports fell -12.2%, driven by declines from Denmark (-20.9%) and Brazil (-38.9%), though year-to-date imports from these countries remain up +22.1% and +44.8%, respectively. Imports from Canada and Mexico have fallen -5.6% and -4.2% year to date, bringing totals to 589 million and 76 million pounds, respectively. On the export side, year-to-date shipments to Mexico and South Korea grew +4.7% and +20.8%, respectively, to 2.2 billion and 560 million pounds, though both declined in October. October exports to China surged +57.3%, though year-to-date totals remain -18.6% lower at 366 million pounds. Exports to Japan rose +5% in October but fell -1.7% year to date to 893 million pounds.

Broiler imports rose +19.1% year to date to 11 million pounds despite a -24.4% year-over-year decline in October. Year-to-date imports from Chile rose +28.5% to 8 million pounds, while those from Canada were near flat at just over 3 million pounds. Broiler exports fell -7.5% year to date to 5.6 billion pounds. Exports to Mexico increased +9.2% year-over-year in October and rose +2.1% year to date to 1.3 billion pounds.

FEED COST OUTLOOK

The final preliminary estimate of this fall’s crop harvests was released by the USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) in mid-November. The final estimate will come in January. The corn harvest was pegged at 15.142 billion bushels, down 200 million bushels from 2023 and down 40 million bushels from the September estimate. Soybean production in 2024 is estimated to be 4.461 billion bushels, up 300 million bushels from last year and 75 million bushels more than the September estimate. Finally, all hay production this year is estimated at 126.8 million tons, up from 118.8 million tons in 2023. Alfalfa production is set at 54.0 million tons, up from 49.9 million tons last year and is an upward revision from the September estimate of 52.4 million tons.

Corn prices appear to have bottomed out for the crop year (September 2024-August 2025). The monthly average corn price in Omaha reached a recent low of $3.93 per bushel in October with November prices bouncing back to $4.20. Corn prices in the Texas Panhandle hit their lows for the calendar year at $4.52 per bushel in August and recovered to $4.85 in November. The USDA-NASS national average corn price received by farmers hit its low for 2024 in August at $3.84 per bushel and was back to $3.99 in October. USDA-NASS will not release the November average until the end of this month. In September, LMIC was expecting the national corn price received by farmers to average $4.10 for the current crop year. That price may turn out to be 10-20 cents too low if recent price trends are sustained.

Soybean prices in Central Illinois registered a monthly low average of $9.89 per bushel in October, followed by a little strength in November to average $9.94. Since soybean processors have been able to buy soybeans at progressively lower prices, soybean meal prices have also been under pressure. Monthly soybean meal prices reached a low of $334 per ton in August. Soybean meal prices in the week prior to Thanksgiving fell close to $300 per ton.

HOG AND PORK PRICE UPDATE

Feeder pig prices have been moving seasonally higher since July. Early weaned (10-12 lbs.) pig prices reached a low for the year of $25.97 per head in early July; from that low, the price has steadily increased $34.08 per head (+131%) to last week’s price of $60.05 per head. Last week’s $60.05 per head price was $22.23 per head (+59%) higher than the same week last year and the highest price so far for the year. Feeder pig (40 lbs.) prices have been rising seasonally higher since the low of $43 per head in early July. Last week’s feeder pig price was $78.07 per head, an increase of $35.07, or +82%, since the low in early July. Last week’s feeder pig price was $34.41 per head (+79%) higher than the same week in 2023.

Sow prices (national, 450-500 lbs.) held between $70 and $75 per cwt from about August to late October. In November, sow prices have been trending lower with last week’s price at $62.54 per cwt. At this time last year, sow prices started to move below $60 per cwt and finished the year just above $40 per cwt.

Slaughter hog prices (base, national, weighted average carcass) saw a bump to $86.73 per cwt in early November, about $11 per cwt (+14%) above the same week a year ago. Prices have since moderated lower to last week’s $82.62 per cwt but compared to a year ago, prices are still about $11 per cwt (+15%) higher. The higher slaughter hog prices are partly being supported by the pork cutout value, which was $90.93 per cwt last week, up about $6 per cwt (+7%) from the same week a year earlier.

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