Livestock Marketing Information Center
In The Cattle Markets
Updated: 2/10/2025
Record-High Prices and a Downside Risk Summary
The first quarter of the calendar year is typically soft for cattle and beef markets. But not this year. Live cattle futures and cash liveweights have traded above $2 per pound. Nebraska and Iowa-Minnesota have been the strongest regional markets in the 5-Area report. With the information in the now-annual USDA Cattle report from 1/31, the supply side of the market outlook for 2025 is fairly straightforward. Tight supplies are here to stay and there is no substantial evidence of herd building. When herd building does commence then heifers in the feeder mix will be reduced, and this will further tighten supplies.
Livestock Monitor
Updated: 2/14/2025
DAIRY MARKETS SHUFFLE INTO NEW YEAR ON SOLID GROUND
Milk production in 2024 declined by a fraction of a percent from the prior year, which was a big reason milk prices were able to bounce back last year (up +10%) after falling -20% in 2023. Meanwhile, feed costs were coming down in 2024 as farmgate alfalfa hay prices averaged $185 per ton compared to $246 per ton in 2023. Corn prices in 2024 averaged $5.95 per bushel at the farm in 2023 followed by a drop to $4.27 per bushel, according to the USDA-National Agriculture Statistical Service (NASS) in 2024.
RETAIL MEAT PRICES
In January, retail meat prices continued right where they left off at the end of 2024 with prices tracking above year-ago levels. The Choice retail beef price was $8.53 per pound in January, a record and up +5.5% from the prior year. January’s all-fresh retail beef price was up +4.3% to $8.15 per pound, which ranks within the top five highest monthly prices reported by USDA Economic Research Service (ERS). In January, ground beef was $5.82 per pound, up +6.3% from last year. Roasts rose +6.2% from last year to $7.72 per pound in January while steaks were up +2.8% to $11.97 per pound.
2024 ANNUAL TRADE STATISTICS
Beef imports surged +24.4% to 4.6 billion pounds in 2024 in response to tighter domestic cattle supplies. Australia and Brazil led the increase, rising +67.1% and +60.6%, respectively, to 1.1 billion and 691 million pounds. Cattle imports also grew during the year +3.1% to over 2 million head. The increase was largely driven by Canada (+8.1% to 793,000 head) but even despite trade disruptions from New World Screwworm, Mexican cattle imports managed to inch up +0.2% to 1.2 million head. Tighter cattle supplies also weighed on beef exports, which declined -1.1% to 3 billion pounds. Among reductions were significant losses to South Korea, China, and Canada, each down about -6%. Cattle exports in total for the year rose +2% to 359,000 head.
Livestock Monitor pdf