Livestock Marketing Information Center

Current Situation and Analysis
Last Updated: 1/4/2019
HOG MARKETS: REVIEW AND 2019 PRICE OUTLOOK

There were fewer lightweight pigs reported than expected in the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report (released December 20th) by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The number of animals in the under 50 pounds weight category was only 0.9% above a year earlier. As of December 1, the number of market hogs increased 1.9% year-over-year. December-February farrowing intentions were 2.5% above a year earlier, and producers reported that they intend to farrow 1.5% more sows during March-May of 2019 than in 2018.


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U.S. STOCKS OF DAIRY PRODUCTS REMAIN LARGE BUT BEGIN TO DIP

Milk production during 2018’s final quarter is projected to post the smallest year-over-year increase since 2015. November output was up 0.8% year-over-year, and the quarterly tally should come in below that increase, assuming milk cow inventories and cow productivity maintain recent trends. A consequence of moderating milk supplies has been reductions in burdensome frozen stocks of dairy products. 


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MISSING MARKET DATA AND REPORTS

The partial Federal government shutdown will tick off its second week Friday, January 4th. Several significant sources of market information are not available. USDA agencies such as ERS, NASS, WAOB, and FAS are closed and have not released reports or data as scheduled. USDA’s AMS market news information is still being reported, which has not always been the case in past shutdowns. AMS employees are now deemed essential, so the agency can still collect and disseminate market price data and information.


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