Livestock Marketing Information Center

Current Situation and Analysis
Last Updated: 4/27/2015
FEEDLOTS PLACE MORE CATTLE THAN EXPECTED

USDA-NASS’s Cattle on Feed report, published April 24th, held surprises when compared to average industry analyst pre-report estimates. Surprise cropped up mainly on the placements side, with average estimates at 95.6% of year ago numbers, the COF report rang in at 100.4% of March 2014. Marketings sat at 98.4% of year ago numbers in the report, much closer to the average estimate of 98.1%. The higher placements bumped up April 1 on feed inventory numbers to 100% compared to April 1 2014. These on-feed inventory numbers remain historically low.


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DAIRY PRODUCT INVENTORY LEVELS

March Milk Production report released April 22 by USDA-NASS closed the first quarter of 2015 with U.S. total milk production nearly 2% above 2014’s. On that same date, USDA-NASS also released the Cold Storage report, in that report LMIC tracks butter and cheese held in cold storage. Stocks in cold storage are frozen. In recent months, milk prices have generally been declining, which is often associated with a build-up of frozen inventories. However, so far, first quarter cold storage levels seem manageable.


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PER CAPITA DISAPPEARANCE OF PORK AND CHICKEN UP IN 2015

Large year-over-year increases in U.S. chicken and pork production have been a theme across all meat and poultry markets, and rightly so. Those increases, compounded by lackluster exports, have dropped wholesale pork and chicken prices dramatically. U.S. pork production (carcass weight) is forecast to be 23.4 billion pounds this year, nearly 7% above 2014’s and setting a new record high. Federally Inspected chicken production less condemnations (often referred to as net production) in the U.S. is expected to be 40.6 billion pounds, 5% above a year ago and record large. Looking at U.S.


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