Livestock Marketing Information Center
In The Cattle Markets
Updated: 12/09/2024
Insurance Observations
Recently a producer asked if Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) premiums adjusted with volatility in the market like options do. The quick response was yes; as futures prices and options premiums change, so do LRP premiums. Like options, LRP has several moving parts. However, expected (or implied) volatility is the only aspect that is not known. A comparison of LRP and options when volatility is both low and high would provide some empirical evidence that both respond to volatility in a similar way. The implied volatility can be backed out of premiums. The CME Group provides LEVL, which is an index of volatility levels for nearby live cattle contract. Recently the volatility in that market has been about 12 percent or a relatively low level for live cattle. Back in late August the volatility was higher, above 16 percent.
Livestock Monitor
Updated: 12/6/2024
OCTOBER TRADE UPDATE
The USDA-ERS released October meat and livestock trade data earlier today, highlighting notable trends in beef, pork, lamb, and broiler trade. Year-to-date beef imports from January to October rose +22.5% to 3.8 billion pounds, while exports declined -2.6% to 2.5 billion pounds. Brazil and Australia saw sharp import increases in October, up +189.9% and +75.6%, respectively, with year-to-date totals at 599 million pounds (+52%) and 870 million pounds (+69.4%). Canadian imports fell -9.2% year-over-year in October but are up +1.3% year to date at 836 million pounds.
FEED COST OUTLOOK
The final preliminary estimate of this fall’s crop harvests was released by the USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) in mid-November. The final estimate will come in January. The corn harvest was pegged at 15.142 billion bushels, down 200 million bushels from 2023 and down 40 million bushels from the September estimate. Soybean production in 2024 is estimated to be 4.461 billion bushels, up 300 million bushels from last year and 75 million bushels more than the September estimate. Finally, all hay production this year is estimated at 126.8 million tons, up from 118.8 million tons in 2023. Alfalfa production is set at 54.0 million tons, up from 49.9 million tons last year and is an upward revision from the September estimate of 52.4 million tons.
HOG AND PORK PRICE UPDATE
Feeder pig prices have been moving seasonally higher since July. Early weaned (10-12 lbs.) pig prices reached a low for the year of $25.97 per head in early July; from that low, the price has steadily increased $34.08 per head (+131%) to last week’s price of $60.05 per head. Last week’s $60.05 per head price was $22.23 per head (+59%) higher than the same week last year and the highest price so far for the year. Feeder pig (40 lbs.) prices have been rising seasonally higher since the low of $43 per head in early July. Last week’s feeder pig price was $78.07 per head, an increase of $35.07, or +82%, since the low in early July. Last week’s feeder pig price was $34.41 per head (+79%) higher than the same week in 2023.
Livestock Monitor pdf