The turkey industry has struggled with declining per capita consumption (disappearance) this millennium. On a retail weight basis, per capita turkey consumption peaked in 1996 at 18.2 pounds. LMIC is expecting turkey consumption this year to be 15.8 pounds, down a tenth of a pound from 2018. Most of that annual decline has occurred during the final quarter of the year, which is tied to the two prominent turkey meals, Thanksgiving and Christmas. Per capita turkey consumption during the October-December quarter peaked in 1992, based on data going back to 1990.
Third quarter beef and pork posted year-over-year gains in the Meat Demand Index calculated by LMIC. That index is a measure of changes in domestic consumer demand. Retail beef (measured by the retail all fresh beef price) demand increased less than 1% over last year. Retail beef demand is currently in an upcycle after 2008-2013 showed values below 100. Since 2014 the index for the third quarter has ranged from 102 to 110, 2019 was the highest since 2015.
Quarterly dairy cow replacement prices are surveyed by USDA NASS. Last month the third quarter of 2019 data was released, showing that nationally replacement values were at $1310 per head. That was the highest since 2nd quarter of 2018 and suggests renewed interest from dairy operations to expand/refresh their herds.
