Livestock Marketing Information Center

The September Hogs and Pigs report was released by USDA-NASS last Thursday and all hogs and pigs were reported at 74.3 million head, down 1.1 million head (-1.5%) from last year. This was within the range of pre-report estimates but slightly lower than the average estimate, which was expecting a decline of less than one percent (-0.8%) from the prior year. Market hogs were lower than a year ago, falling nearly 1.1 million head (-1.5%) to just over 68.4 million head.

CATTLE ON FEED STAYS ELEVATED

Cattle on feed continues to remain above year-ago levels going into the fall. USDA-NASS reported September 1 cattle on feed at 11.163 million head, up 83,000 head (+0.7%) from last year but below analysts’ expectations of a +1.8% increase. Cattle continue to spend more time on feed amid tight available feeder cattle supplies. According to the latest Kansas State University (KSU) Focus on Feedlots data, average days on feed for steers from January through July was 195 days, compared with 181 days over the same period last year, an increase of roughly two weeks (+7.6%).

CONSUMERS EATING MORE CHICKEN AT LOWER PRICES

Through the first half of the year, chicken consumption is up +5% from 2025. Demand for chicken has been good enough to reduce inventories in cold storage by almost -10% during the first half of the year. Exports over the first six months of the year were close to the same as a year earlier. The increase in consumption can be taken as a positive sign for consumer spending on food, as represented by retail sales at grocery stores and foodservice channels, slowing from close to a 5% growth rate last summer to slightly under 3% in the spring quarter. Summer quarter food sector retail sales bounced up to close to a +4% gain in July but slowed back to -2% in August as grocery store retail sales were below a year ago in August.

Livestock Monitor (pdf)