Livestock Marketing Information Center

Current Situation and Analysis
Last Updated: 9/23/2022
DROUGHT, COF: CA AND U.S.

Drought has continued across large sections of the U.S., which is effecting Cattle on Feed (COF) placements rates. August U.S. COF showed placements outpacing last year’s very high number of 2.103, by 0.4% to 2.112 million head. Drought induced large placement increases in Texas, up 9%, but other states saw significant increases and were likely impacted by increases in feeder cattle from Canada. The Cattle on Feed report only provides state level data for 12 states, and among those Iowa and Minnesota saw double digit gains over a year ago of 16%, and 29% respectively.


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U.S. CONSUMER CHECK-UP

A couple of interesting new data points have come out in the last few weeks. Consumer price index (CPI), advanced retail sales, consumer sentiment, and the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates another 0.75%. The raise in federal interest rates was unsurprising as inflation in the CPI remains over 8%. The Federal Reserve has taken an ever more hawkish stance, and looks to curb inflation through monetary policy. This is expected to impact consumers, but will do so overtime.


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SHEEP AND LAMB INVENTORY OUTLOOK

As of January 1, 2022, USDA NASS reported total sheep and lamb inventory levels at 5.065 million head, down 2.0% or 105,000 head from 2021. This was the largest decline of inventory since 2014 which saw a 2.3% decline, but over the last five years the annual average decline has been less than one percent. The breeding flock also saw a 1.9% decline last year to 3.710 million head which was partly due to annual mature sheep slaughter of 141,000 head in 2021, a 24.5% or 28,000 head increase over 2020 and the highest level in a decade.


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