Livestock Monitor – 10/11/2024
TRADE UPDATE
The USDA ERS released its August Monthly Meat and Livestock Trade data on Wednesday. Year-to-date through August, U.S. beef imports rose +20.9% to just over 3.0 billion pounds, while exports fell -3.6% to about 2.5 billion pounds. Imports from Canada were 658.8 million pounds from January to August (up +3.2% year-to-date), while year-over-year imports were down -1.9% in August. Australia has seen the strongest growth in 2024, with imports rising +69.9% to 635.7 million pounds through eight months of the year, including a 46.3% increase year-over-year in August. Brazil and New Zealand followed with year-to-date increases of +41.9% (496.2 million pounds) and +8.8% (436.1 million pounds), respectively. However, in August, Brazil’s imports surged +186.2%, while New Zealand’s dropped -10.4%. Mexico was the outlier for imports, declining -15.5% year-to-date (386.1 million pounds) and 4.1% year-over-year. Beef exports have seen reductions across all major trading partners except Mexico, which rose +10.8% to 226.5 million pounds year-to-date. Japan (448.8 million pounds), South Korea (408.8 million pounds), China (314 million pounds), Canada (176.9 million pounds), and Taiwan (132.6 million pounds) saw year-to-date declines of -0.2%, -11.9%, -10%, -4.2%, and -3.6%, respectively.
Pork imports rose +4.0% through August to 775.2 million pounds, with increases being sustained from Denmark (up +39% to 55.1 million pounds), Poland (up +2.5% to 33.5 million pounds), and the Netherlands (up +101.4% to 14.8 million pounds). However, imports from key partners, Canada and Mexico, fell -5.2% and -4.9% to 472.5 million and 60.0 million pounds, respectively, from January to August. Pork exports grew +4.6% to 4.7 billion pounds through the first eight months of the year, driven by increases from Mexico (up +6.5% to 1.8 billion pounds) and South Korea (up +28.2% to 493.8 million pounds). Meanwhile, year-to-date exports through August to Japan, Canada, and China declined by -2.9%, -3.1%, and -30.3%, reaching 735.5 million, 342.7 million, and 267.6 million pounds, respectively.
Year-to-date through August, U.S. lamb imports rose +38.1% to 211.7 million pounds, with Australia and New Zealand both contributing to the growth, up +39.4% and +35.6% to 154.4 and 54.7 million pounds, respectively. Lamb exports also increased by +34.6% to 557 thousand pounds, largely due to Mexico’s demand, which surged +315.8% to 327 thousand pounds.
Broiler exports fell -8.7% through the first eight months of the year to just over 4.4 billion pounds, with the largest decline coming from China (down -77.4% to 49.9 million pounds). year-to-date exports to Mexico are up marginally this year by +0.7% to nearly 1.1 billion pounds. Broiler imports rose +33.1% to 101.8 million pounds from January to August, driven by a +51.9% increase from Chile. Year-to-date through August, turkey exports grew +8.2% to 319.1 million pounds, while imports dropped -22.7% to 23.8 million pounds.
CPI AND RETAIL PRICES
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September posted a +2.4% increase over last year. The inflation rate has not been below 2.5% since February 2021 (1.7%). The meat CPI posted a +2.5% increase over last year, the poultry CPI was up marginally by +0.5%, the housing CPI rose +4.1%, while energy fell -6.8%. The core CPI (all items less food and energy) increased +3.3% in September and has remained in the 3% range since December 2023.
In September, retail beef prices posted gains with the Choice price increasing +2.8% from last year to $8.41 per pound while the all-fresh beef price rose 5.0% from last year to a record $8.21 per pound. For the last six consecutive months, the all-fresh retail beef price has set record levels each month rising from $7.95 per pound in April to September’s $8.21 per pound. Retail prices for ground beef and sirloin steaks were both records in September of $5.67 and $11.79 per pound, respectively, increasing +11.0% and +1.4% from last year.
Retail pork prices posted a marginal decline of -0.4% from last year to $4.95 per pound in September. Bacon prices were down -1.8% to $6.96 per pound, but September bacon prices were the highest reported so far this year. The retail price for chops held steady with last year at $4.33 per pound in September. Hams were $5.63 per pound in September, down -4.3% from last year.
The broiler composite retail price was $2.47 per pound in September, up fractionally by +0.2% from a year ago. September’s whole bird retail price was $1.98 per pound, up +4.1% from last year and not far from the record price of $2.01 per pound in May 2024. Retail prices for breast and leg prices both fell from a year ago by -6.0% and -1.4% in September, respectively, to $3.97 and $1.87 per pound.
CHEESE MARKETS AND MILK PRICES
Dairy markets finished up the summer quarter on solid ground with both price and product usage trends moving higher. Wholesale cheddar cheese prices (40-pound block) averaged $2.06 per pound during the summer quarter, up from $1.79 in the prior quarter and $1.82 a year ago. American-type cheese usage, which was down from a year earlier during the first half of the year, was on track to be unchanged from the summer of 2023. Expanded American-type cheese usage comes in the face of lower inventories of American-type cheese in cold storage (down 50 million pounds from a year earlier) at mid-year and reduced production during the summer. Forecast inventories of American-type cheese at the beginning of the current quarter are down 80-90 million pounds from a year ago. This should support cheddar cheese prices this quarter by about 10 cents than they were in the summer. The All Milk price at the farm level reported by USDA-NASS should average above $24 per cwt. this fall compared to about $23.50 per cwt this summer.
