Livestock Monitor – 4/24/2026
CATTLE MARKET DISCUSSION
The April 1 Cattle on Feed report released by USDA-NASS was in line with pre-report expectations and continues to highlight tight cattle supplies. To recap, cattle on feed was reported at just under 11.6 million head, down 62,000 head, or less than one percent (-0.5%) from last year. Analysts were expecting a decline of -0.3% from last year. Cattle marketings in March were down 95,000 head (-7.3%) from last year to 1.6 million, which was within the range of pre-report estimates but slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate, which was expecting a decline of -6.7%. March placements fell 134,000 head (-5.5%) to 1.7 million head, which was within the range of analysts’ pre-report expectations. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report provides a quarterly breakout of steers and heifers on feed. The percentage of heifers on feed was reported at 37.3%, which was similar to the 37.6% reported a year ago, signaling that minimal heifer retention is occurring in the cattle sector.
The drought situation continues to worsen in cattle country, which only limits herd rebuilding efforts. As of April 23, 2026, USDA was reporting that “approximately 63% of the cattle inventory is within an area experiencing drought.” This is up dramatically from a year ago when USDA was reporting only 37% of the cattle inventory was located in drought areas. For the US, the Drought Monitor is reporting that 77.57% of the US is categorized as D0-D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought) compared to 56.08% during the same week a year ago. In short, dryness persists across much of the US and cattle country.
Feeder and fed cattle prices continue to hold strong throughout the first quarter of the year. In the Southern Plains, the 400-500 lbs. steer calf price (medium and large #1) was reported at $565.45 per cwt, up $142.86 per cwt (+34%) from the same week last year. The Southern Plains price for 500-600 lbs. steer calf (medium and large #1) was $500.02 per cwt, up +116.41 per cwt (+30%) from last year. Last week’s price for 700-800 lbs. feeder steers was $390.58 per cwt, up $92.39 per cwt (+31%) from last year and the highest price so far this year.
RED MEAT AND POULTRY STOCKS LOWER IN MARCH
USDA-NASS reported lower cold storage stocks for red meat, falling 16 million pounds (-2%) to 838 million pounds in March. The decline was driven by a 13-million-pound (-2%) decline in total beef stocks to 411 million pounds. In March, boneless beef and beef cuts decreased from the previous year by 13 and 1 million pounds, respectively, to 374 and 37 million pounds. Lamb and mutton stocks were 16 million pounds in March, down 3 million pounds (-15%) from last year. Pork in cold storage increased fractionally in March by 2 million pounds (+0.4%) to 411 million pounds. As the summer grilling season approaches, demand typically strengthens, which often leads to red meat stocks moving seasonally lower.
Total poultry stocks were just over 1 billion pounds in March, down 53 million pounds (-5%) from a year ago. The decline was driven by lower year-over-year cold storage stocks for chicken and turkey. Chicken stocks were down 35 million pounds (-5%) to 723 million pounds in March. Lower inventory levels were seen across the board for breast meat (-5%), leg quarters (-17%), drumsticks (-16%), and wings (-16%), while thigh meat was the only reported category to post an increase (+13%) from a year ago. Whole birds were down 26 million pounds (-3%) to 747 million pounds. Turkey stocks were at 276 million pounds in March, declining 27 million pounds (-9%) from the prior year. Whole turkey stocks were down 23 million pounds (-16%) from last year to 118 million pounds. Egg stocks jumped 13 million pounds (+90%) to 26 million pounds in March.
DAIRY HERD EXPANSION CONTINUES BUT PACE SLOWS IN LAST TWO MONTHS
Eight thousand cows were added to the dairy herd in March following a 6,000-cow addition in February and a 41,000-head add in January. As of March, the dairy cow herd had expanded by +2% from a year earlier, and milk production in the first quarter of 2026 was up by +2.9% from the first quarter of 2025. The All Milk price reported by USDA-NASS for the first two months of 2026 is $17.90 per cwt. Milk and dairy product prices in general were rising in March, so the first quarter average for the All-Milk Price should be about $18.60 per cwt, which would be down $4-$5 per cwt from the first quarter of 2025.
An All Milk price below $20 per cwt is expected to prompt the dairy industry to liquidate some of its herds if milk prices do not rebound in the coming months. The All Milk average price in the last quarter of 2025 was $19.57 per cwt and in the summer quarter was $20.57 per cwt. Only one state registered fewer milk cows during the first quarter and that was California, with a 5,000-head decrease off a base of 1.7 million dairy cows.
Wholesale butter prices averaged $1.68 per pound in the first quarter, up from $1.52 per pound in the last quarter of 2025. Prices peaked in mid-March at $1.94 and have fallen about $0.20 per pound since then. Steady prices for the rest of the quarter are expected, which could normally keep a lid on prospects for All Milk prices in the coming months. The surprise is the milk powder market, with non-fat dry milk prices trading above $1.80 per pound in the latest week, up from $1.15 per pound at the start of the year. These prices are becoming a supportive feature in the cheese market that has helped to push cheddar prices from the mid-$1.40s in late February to $1.65 currently. Adding these factors could support the All Milk price in the second quarter of 2026 near $22 per cwt instead of $20 and make the dairy industry think twice about sending cows to the slaughter plant.
On the production cost side of the ledger, alfalfa hay prices have been tame so far this year. According to USDA-NASS, the alfalfa hay price received by farmers through most of the first quarter of 2026 have been below 2025 prices. Corn prices were also lower during the first quarter than they were a year ago, but that is beginning to show signs of changing as prospective plantings of corn are lower than in 2025. A change in trend towards higher feed costs and flat milk price would probably trigger some downward adjustments in the size of the dairy herd in the coming months.
Livestock Monitor (pdf)