
Livestock Monitor – 1/31/2025
CATTLE INVENTORY
The USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) released their annual Cattle report last Friday, offering a snapshot of domestic cattle inventories going into the new year. As of January 1, 2025, all cattle and calves declined -0.6% to 86.7 million head, near the upper range of analysts’ expectations, which averaged a -0.9% decline and had a best-case scenario decline of down -0.5%. The 2024 calf crop fell just -0.1% to 33.5 million head, well above analysts’ projections, which had anticipated a -1.5% drop within a down -1% to down -2.1% range.
Among cattle greater than 500 pounds, all categories saw declines: steers fell -1% to 15.8 million head, bulls dropped -1.1% to 2 million head, heifers decreased -0.8% to 18.2 million head, and cows slipped -0.4% to 37.2 million head; cows were dead on with average pre-report estimates. While most figures aligned with analysts’ expectations, bulls fell slightly outside the forecast range by 0.1% on the bottom end of down -1%.
Among cows and calved heifers, beef cow inventories declined -0.5% to 27.9 million head, aligning with the projected downward range of -0.4% to -1%. Dairy cows were nearly unchanged with 2024, rising by 3,000 head (+0.03%) to 9.3 million head, though analysts had expected a +0.2% increase on average. The anticipated range was down -0.2% to up +0.5%.
Heifers retained for beef cow replacements fell -1% to 4.7 million head, missing forecasts that expected a +1.3% increase within a range of down -0.8% to up +5%. Milk cow replacements also fell short, dropping -0.9% to 3.9 million head, despite analysts’ expectations of a +0.6% increase within an upward range of +0.1% to +1.6%. Other heifers declined -0.6% to 9.6 million head, slightly above expectations, which averaged down -1.8% down with the high end of projections down -0.4%.
SHEEP AND GOAT INVENTORY
USDA NASS released the annual Sheep and Goats report, providing a snapshot of inventory levels as of January 1, 2025. All sheep and lamb inventory levels in the U.S. increased marginally (+0.4%) by 20,000 head to 5.050 million head. Texas reported a +4.7% (30,000 head) increase from a year ago to 670,000 head while Utah increased +3.7% (10,000 head) to 280,000 head. Colorado, California, and Idaho remained unchanged from the prior year at 405, 510, and 235 thousand head, respectively. Wyoming and South Dakota reported declines of 20,000 (-6.3%) and 5,000 head (-2.4% head), respectively, to 300 thousand and 205 thousand head.
Nationally, the breeding flock saw a marginal increase from the prior year of 10,000 head to 3.680 million head. Replacement lambs under one year old and rams one year old and older remained unchanged from a year ago at 635 thousand and 165 thousand head, respectively. Market sheep and lambs were reported at 1.370 million head, up 10,000 head from last year. The 2024 lamb crop was reported up by 10,000 head from 2023’s level to 3.040 million head. This led to a slightly higher lambing percentage of 105.9 compared to 103.4 in 2023.
U.S. all goat inventories were reported up +1.5% (37,000 head) to 2.507 million head. Increases in meat and milk goat inventories more than offset declines in angora goats. Meat goat inventory levels were reported at 1.975 million head, up +1.3% (25,000 head) from last year. Inventory for milk goats were reported up +3.6% (15,000 head) to 4.3 million head. Angora goats were down -2.9% (3,000 head) to 102,000 head.
CORN MARKET PRICE RALLY CONSISTENT WITH REVISED HARVEST ESTIMATES
The nearby futures contract for corn (March delivery) reached a high of $4.975 per bushel on Wednesday, January 29. Back in late August, the nearby futures contract (December) traded as low as $3.85 per bushel. The last time corn prices moved by this amount from late summer to the start of the following year was 2021 when prices went from $4.98 to $6.03 per bushel. In the months that followed in 2022, nearby futures moved to $8.18 per bushel in early May. In 2022, the forces moving corn prices higher were crop problems in the Southern Hemisphere and the war in Ukraine.
This year, corn prices have recovered based on downward revisions to the estimated size of the US corn harvest by USDA-NASS. On January 10, USDA-NASS adjusted its estimate of US corn production to 14.867 billion bushels based on an average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. This compares with their estimate in November of 15.143 billion bushels based on a yield of 183.1 bushels per acre. The November estimate was close to the initial estimate made in August, when the Midwest experienced mild summer weather, resulting in unprecedented favorable crop condition ratings. Historical relationships, crop ratings, and corn harvest yields raised expectations that this year’s corn harvest could have an average yield as high as 188 bushels per acre, which more than likely had a bearing on how low corn prices went at that time. Currently, LMIC has raised its forecast for corn prices received by farmers this crop year (September-August) to $4.40 from $4.20 at the start of the year (and $4.10 last October). Year-to-date the corn price at the farm has averaged $4.00 and with the existing, buoyant market attitudes, there is the potential for the crop year’s average price to come in above the current LMIC forecast.
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