Livestock Monitor – 3/14/2025

RETAIL MEAT PRICES

The USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS) recently released retail meat prices for the month of February. The price of all fresh retail beef rose by +6.2% to $8.32 per lb., retail pork prices increased by +1.6% to $4.84 per lb., and retail broiler prices climbed by +5.1% to $2.05 per lb.

In the beef mix, prices for all uncooked ground beef reached $5.96 per lb., reflecting an +8.8% increase year over year. Similarly, beef roasts experienced an +8.8% increase with prices approaching $8.00 per lb. Choice steak prices recorded a +7.6% increase from the previous year, reaching $8.49 per lb. Choice sirloin steaks were priced at $11.90 per lb., marking an increase of +1.6%.

Relative to pork, price increases were more modest. Bacon prices rose by +3.6% to $6.80 per lb., while bone-in and boneless chops increased by +1.4% and +4.1%, respectively, to $4.46 and $4.56 per lb. Hams were an exception, experiencing a  -2% price decrease year over year to $4.43 per lb.

In the poultry market, the gap between wholesale and retail chicken prices narrowed for February. The retail chicken composite increased by +2.4% to $2.43 per lb. while the whole chicken composite rose by +22.2% year-over-year to $1.22 per lbs. Within the retail mix, fresh whole chicken prices increased by +5.1% to $2.05 per lb., chicken legs rose by +2.3% to $1.79 per lb., and boneless chicken breasts declined slightly by -0.6% to $4.08 per lb.

FEEDER PIG PRICES

Prices for early weaned (10-12 lbs.) and 40 lb. feeder pigs started the year at levels well above the prior year but have recently moved lower. Early weaned feeder pig prices were just above $80 per head at the start of the year and peaked at $81.08 per head the first week of February. Since the peak, prices have moved lower with last week’s price at $62.80 per head, which is a decline of $18.28 (-23%) per head. Compared to a year ago, last week’s early weaned feeder pig price was up +12% or $6.61 per head.

The price for a 40 lb. feeder pig started the year at $95.33 per head and reached a peak of $115.58 per head by the third week of February, which is an increase of +21%, or $20.25 per head. From the peak price just two weeks ago, the 40 lb. feeder pig price has moved -11% lower ($12.89 per head) to last week’s price of $102.69 per head. This price is still +11%, or $9.95 per head, above where 40 lb. feeder pig prices were during the same week last year.

Seasonally, early weaned and 40 lb. feeder pig prices start to trend lower around March or April. This year it looks like the prices may be moving lower sooner, but the prices are still tracking above year-ago levels.

STABLE FEED COST OUTLOOK HINGES ON EXPORTS AND BIOFUEL DEMAND

The USDA-World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its monthly forecast of agriculture markets this week. Little or no change was made to corn and soybean market outlooks from the prior month. Corn exports for the current crop year (Sep 2024-Aug 2025) are pegged at 2.45 billion bushels, up from 2.292 billion bushels and are at the highest volume since the 2021 crop year. Corn usage for ethanol, food products, and seed are expected to run at 6.89 billion bushels, up from 6.86 billion bushels last year and at the highest level since the 2017 crop year. Both components of corn demand are robust and should keep offerings of corn to the US livestock, poultry, and dairy markets at a level slightly less than the last crop year.

Considering this situation, the USDA left its farm corn price projection for the current crop year unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA has reported monthly average prices at the farm for corn through January with the average at $4.11 per bushel so far. The January farm price was $4.29 per bushel. There is an inference within this price forecast that corn export and biofuel demand need to stay strong for the remainder of the crop year (through the summer).  Currently, the corn futures contract for May delivery is around $4.60 per bushel, and the December contract is around $4.50 per bushel. LMIC is expecting that these prices will lead farmers to plant 90.5 million acres of corn this spring, close to unchanged from last year. This is less than what was expected a month ago when March corn futures were attempting to break through the $5.00 per bushel barrier. At this level of plantings, with average yields of 178-180 bushels per acre harvested this fall and similar export and biofuel demand for corn, prices for the 2025-2026 crop should not be that much different than this year.

The USDA-WAOB view of soybean and soybean meal that was released this week resembled their corn efforts. Very few changes were made from the prior month. Soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to be up +8% this year from a year ago as prices are down -20%. LMIC is looking for a slight increase (around one million acres) in soybean plantings this year that could put downside pressure on soybean meal prices next year. USDA releases its Prospective Plantings report on March 31.

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