In The Cattle Markets

November 10, 2025

Bernt Nelson
Economist
American Farm Bureau Federation

USDA to Publish WASDE and Cattle on Feed for November.

The U.S. Government has now been shut down for 40 days, making it the longest shutdown event on record. Impacts are far reaching and range from halted disaster aid payments all the way to cancelled USDA reports and data products that are used by countless stakeholders all over the world. USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Cattle on Feed (COF) reports are two monthly reports that have huge impacts on markets and farmer and rancher decisions throughout the country. USDA did not publish either report in October. With harvest for many crops underway, and farmers making decisions about keeping cattle for breeding or sending them to market, this is a critical time for decision makers on the farm to have access to these reports.

USDA’s WASDE is one of the most influential publications in agriculture. This report provides estimates on global crop production, consumption, and trade that markets rely on for price discovery. Similarly, USDA’s COF report provides estimates for the number of cattle on feed, placed into feedlots, and marketed for beef production. These reports provide a real-time snapshot of the national and global balance sheet for crop and livestock supplies and demand. Without these reports, stakeholders are forced to rely on alternative sources of information, adding to market uncertainty.

Reports, such as WASDE and COF, have been missed or delayed in the past. During the 35-day shutdown that lasted from Dec. 2018 to Jan. 2019, the Jan. 2019 WASDE was missed and ultimately released on Feb. 8, 2019, after the government reopened.

On Friday, October 31, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced that it will release several key agricultural reports in November, including the monthly WASDE, Cattle on Feed, Crop Production, and Milk Production reports. USDA will release crop production and WASDE estimates on Nov. 14, while USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report is scheduled for release on Nov. 21. Regardless of whether these reports are bullish or bearish, they could add considerable volatility to markets upon their release.

The Markets

Both live and feeder cattle prices fell under immense selling pressure through last week. Rumors of opening ports for the importation of cattle from Mexico fueled selling that had already been accelerated by news that the administration wants to bring beef prices down. The January 2026 feeder cattle contract closed slightly higher at $319/cwt on Friday, Nov. 7, down about 16% from the contract high of $380/cwt on Oct. 16. The weekly 5-area weighted average price paid for all steers was $228.70/cwt for the week ending Nov. 7, 2025. This is down 6% from August highs of $244/cwt. Fundamentally, cattle supplies are still tight and demand for beef remains strong, but there are new forces impacting confidence in the market that may continue to drive price uncertainty and volatility. Finding opportunities to manage risk in this volatile environment will be key for farmers and they weather this environment and ultimately consider rebuilding the herd.

Data Source: USDA-AMS Market News as compiled by LMIC